PSV vs Atlético Madrid (Champions League): odds and picks 09.12.2025

A very interesting clash at the Philips Stadion to close out the Champions League group stage. PSV are on a roll, leading the Eredivisie and brimming with confidence after a 4-1 win at Anfield against Liverpool and a recent 2-0 win at Heerenveen, stringing together a great run of results in all competitions.

Atlético, on the other hand, arrive in Eindhoven with doubts: they are coming off two consecutive away defeats (3-1 at Camp Nou and 1-0 at San Mamés) and are struggling away from Madrid, with only 9 points out of a possible 24 as visitors in La Liga. Even so, their offensive power and head-to-head record (4 wins, 2 draws, 0 defeats against PSV in the Champions League) mean that the bookmakers still see them as favourites. The context is clear: PSV are fresher and on a positive run; Atleti are under more pressure and have significant absences.

PSV

I have been following PSV all year because I thought they were the typical ‘dark horse’ of this Champions League, and reality is proving me right: leaders in the Eredivisie, with a very balanced attack (Til, Saibari, Pepi, Veerman, Man…) and a tremendously solid dynamic. In the league, they are coming off a 2-0 win over Heerenveen and several other big wins, including a 3-0 rout of Volendam, a 5-2 win over Fortuna and a 4-2 win in Groningen at the start of the season.

In the Champions League, they have sent two very clear signals: on the one hand, the 6-2 win over Napoli in Eindhoven and, above all, the 4-1 win over Liverpool at Anfield, where they were lethal on the counterattack with Driouech, Perisic and Til. This is no coincidence: Bosz’s PSV play very high up the pitch, press after losing possession and are not afraid of back-and-forth games, which drives up the goal averages. Many of their recent European matches have seen between three and six goals scored in total.

At home, the Philips Stadion is proving to be a fortress: they hardly ever slip up in the Eredivisie and, apart from the initial setback against Telstar, they have strung together clear victories with several matches exceeding two goals in favour. In terms of names, the starting eleven is very clear: Kovar in goal; a back four with Dest, Schouten, Gasiorowski and Salah-Eddine; a midfield with Junior, Saibari and Veerman; and up front a very mobile trio with Til, Driouech and Perisic starting from the wings.

The only negative note is the loss of two top-level attackers, Alassane Pléa and Ruben van Bommel, who are out with knee injuries and are not expected to return in 2025. Even so, the second line (Til, Saibari, Perisic, Man) is responding well and the team exudes a lot of confidence in attack.

Atlético Madrid

Atleti arrives with a very different look. Overall, their season has been good: fourth in LaLiga, a productive attack (5-2 wins over Real Madrid and 3-0 over Sevilla, 5-1 over Eintracht in the Champions League, 3-1 over Union Saint-Gilloise, 2-1 over Inter…) and a sense of competitiveness when playing at home. But away from the Metropolitano, the story is quite different: only two wins, three draws and three defeats in LaLiga, with nine points from eight away games.

The last two away games, at Camp Nou and San Mamés, ended in defeat (3-1 and 1-0), showing a team that is somewhat more fragile at the back and less incisive up front: only 0.65 xG generated in Bilbao, for example. Added to this is a very serious injury list: Giménez, Llorente, Álex Baena and Johnny Cardoso are out, and Le Normand has been struggling with knee problems. Simeone is being forced to improvise at the back (Pubill, Lenglet, rearranging pieces) and to tone down the aggressiveness of the press due to a sheer lack of legs.

Offensively, the focus remains on Julián Álvarez, Griezmann and the second line, but the absence of Baena reduces their creativity between the lines, precisely the type of player who punishes teams as open as PSV. Even so, history is on their side: in six official matches against PSV in the Champions League, Atleti have never lost (four wins, two draws, only one goal conceded).

My reading is clear: Atlético remain a very competitive team, but they arrive in Eindhoven at a delicate moment in terms of legs and confidence, especially away from home.

Referee: Michael Oliver

The designated referee is Michael Oliver, an Englishman who is one of the most regular referees on big European nights. He has refereed several important Champions League matches this season and, in the 2025/26 tournament, he has officiated six matches with 24 yellow cards and no red cards, i.e. an average of four yellow cards per match in the competition.

Looking at his overall profile, the figures show him to be a relatively card-happy referee: around 3.3-4 yellow cards per match and one red card every 15-20 matches. He is not your typical ‘ultra over’ referee, but he is not soft either; he tends to give yellow cards for anything that goes a little over the top in high-tension matches.

There is no recent history with Atleti and PSV that particularly changes the script, so for me, the main impact is that Oliver tends to protect skilled players and has no problem awarding penalties if he sees clear contact. This is something to bear in mind in markets for over 3.5 cards overall, but it does not have as much influence as with other more extreme referees.

My predictions for PSV vs Atlético Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Over 2.5 goals in the match. Odds 1.60

For the conservative bet, I’m going with over 2.5 goals. The bookmakers are offering odds of around 1.55–1.60 for this match, which is very much in the range we are looking for, with Atleti as slight favourites and the goals market clearly leaning towards the ‘over’. Why do I like it? Firstly, because of PSV: they are a team that plays in the opposition’s half, coming off a 4-1 win at Anfield and a 6-2 win at Napoli, with very high averages in both the Eredivisie and the Champions League. Secondly, because Atlético, even when they are on a bad run, have a lot of quality up front and usually find the net (5-2 against Madrid, 5-1 against Eintracht, 3-1 against Union SG, 2-1 against Inter). The main risk would be that Simeone plans a very closed game to stop the bleeding away from home, but the context of injuries at the back and the need to score points pushes for a more open game than he might like. Personally, I see more scenarios with 2-1, 1-2, 2-2, 3-1 than 0-0 or 1-0, so this over suits me as a base bet or as part of a strong combination.

BetoThe bold one

PSV to win and both teams to score – Odds 4.50

Here I am looking for pure value. The market continues to respect Atleti greatly for its name and direct history against PSV, but if we look at form and context, the scenario of a home win with an away goal seems very plausible to me. My reasoning for the bet is as follows:

• PSV are on a roll: league leaders, more than 11 games without defeat, prestigious victories such as the 4-1 win at Anfield and a very balanced attack.
• At home, they generate a lot: matches with 3, 4 and 5 goals scored have been repeated several times this season.
• Atlético are struggling away from Madrid: only two wins in eight league away games and coming off defeats in Barcelona and Bilbao.
• Even so, they have punch and rarely go many games in a row without scoring; even when they are not at their best, they usually manage to score a goal.

My prediction for the match is a brave PSV, pressing from the start, which can hurt a Rojiblanca defence that is badly affected by injuries and a lack of automatisms, but with an Atleti that, with players like Griezmann and Julián Álvarez, always has the ability to find one or two clear chances. I think a 2-1 or 3-1 home win is very feasible.

It’s a moderate/low stake pick, but for high odds I prefer to go with this combination rather than a simple 1X2 or a correct score. It fits with what I see in the dynamics of both teams and what the recent statistics show.