Racing Club vs Flamengo (Copa Libertadores): odds and picks 28.10.2025

A decisive match in the second leg of the 2025 Copa Libertadores semi-finals, where Racing Club (Argentina) hosts Flamengo (Brazil) with everything at stake after Flamengo’s 1-0 win in the first leg.

Racing comes into the match motivated by playing at home and with their fans pushing for a comeback; Flamengo comes in with experience, hierarchy and the need to manage the result after the first leg. I see a tactical duel, with few cracks, where whoever scores first will gain control.

How Racing Club is doing

Racing has managed to position itself among the top four teams on the continent after a series of qualifying rounds where it showed solidity and defensive commitment. As the home team, it has the advantage: its stadium, its rhythm, its fans.

However, the wear and tear of continental competition, the pressure to advance and the challenge of keeping the team united are creating tension. The result of the first leg means they have to score or at least not concede a goal, which means they cannot afford to lose control early on.

They are in a season of transition in Argentina. In the Professional League, they are in the upper-middle positions, but not with the level of dominance they had in other years.

In the quarter-finals, they beat Velez (0-1, 1-0) and in the round of 16, they beat Peñarol (1-0, 1-3).

How Flamengo are doing

Flamengo goes into the match as the favourite: experience, a more expensive squad, high-level matches already played. Even so, there are some doubts: the first leg was a close contest, they struggled to break down their opponents and, although they remain dangerous away from home, they have had some weaker moments.

Their mission will be to score away from home, control phases of the match and not get carried away by the home side’s momentum.

Flamengo is in good form overall: averaging almost two goals per game and conceding few (approximately 0.5 goals per game in the Brazilian league). It has international experience, a larger squad and is accustomed to key South American clashes.

The challenge for them will be to adapt to the competitive atmosphere away from home, the demands of the fixture list and the cup environment against an opponent who will give their all to cause an upset.

They have already beaten another Argentine team in the quarter-finals – Estudiantes La Plata (2-1, 1-0) – although they had to resort to penalties after taking the lead in the first leg (2-1) and losing 1-0 in Argentina.

Key factors

• Single or decisive match context: In this semi-final stage, the tension is at its peak, favouring moments of caution rather than offensive recklessness.
• Home advantage vs. visiting hierarchy: Racing has everything to believe in at home; Flamengo has the resources and reputation to handle this type of clash.
• Pressure on both sides to get a result: Racing needs to score, Flamengo needs to hold on to its lead, which encourages control rather than risk-taking.
• Recent history/statistics: Direct clashes between big South American teams tend to have few goals and alternating dominance. For example, the last match between the two was a tight 1–0 win for Flamengo.

Predictions