Real Madrid vs Athletic (La Liga): odds and bets 23.05.2026

The final La Liga night at the Bernabéu and, although there isn’t much at stake in the table, there is certainly a strong emotional element: farewells for the Whites and the end of an era on the Rojiblancos’ bench.

I expect a dominant Madrid side in possession and a more reactive Athletic, looking to cause damage on the break. The factor that most influences my view is home/away form: Madrid have been very reliable at home, whilst Athletic have struggled away from San Mamés.

Real Madrid

Madrid arrive with top-team statistics: 73 goals scored and 33 conceded. It’s the kind of margin that keeps you afloat even when the play isn’t brilliant. Furthermore, at the Bernabéu they have had a very solid league campaign: 15 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats. That, for me, is key to backing them because it’s not just about winning: it’s about controlling the game from the back, conceding few goals and not giving away possession on the break.

In terms of recent form, they’ve won three of their last five matches, which shows that, even without being perfect, they’ve finished the final stretch on a high. What does come into play is the injury/absentee list: Militão, Mendy and Rodrygo are listed as injured, and there’s a key factor in attack: Vinícius won’t be there (travel permission), so the attacking burden falls even more heavily on Mbappé, who also arrives with the incentive of the top scorer title (24 goals). In a match with little pressure regarding qualification, that sort of individual ambition usually makes itself felt.

If you ask me “what sort of Madrid I expect”, I’d say a fairly serious one from the start, trying to take the lead early and then manage the game: long periods of possession, avoiding silly turnovers and closing out the match with professionalism.

Athletic

Athletic sit mid-table with statistics that sum up their season: 41 goals scored and 54 conceded, and a recent patchy run of form. To me, this suggests the following: they’ve had competitive spells, but have struggled to sustain them, particularly away from home.

The fact is, their away form has been poor: 4 wins, 3 draws and 11 defeats, with 19 goals scored and 33 conceded on the road. At the Bernabéu, that usually translates into a very clear plan: they sit deep, protect the central channel and try to break out with few touches when they win the ball. The problem is that they arrive with absences that reduce their threat: Nico Williams is out, and there are also significant absentees on the team sheet (as well as a suspension for the full-back). Without Nico, Athletic lose that spark to exploit spaces and force Madrid to chase the ball.

What I do see as a plus point is their pride: they’re a team that competes well when the game gets rough, and on a night of farewells (with a manager ending his spell) they might have that extra bit of focus. But to really get into it, they need to reach the final stages still in the game with the score tight.

Referee: Juan Martínez

The appointed referee is Juan Martínez. He is a referee with a tendency to manage matches with a fair number of cards: his average is around 5 yellows per match and around 0.2 reds, a profile that tends to punish tactical fouls well when the match breaks down. In a Madrid–Athletic match, where there are many duels and challenges on the flanks, this usually invites a look at disciplinary markets if the line is set ‘low’.

I don’t have a reliable breakdown of “when he has refereed each side this season” with cards/penalties in a single consolidated record to hand, so I prefer to stick with the referee’s general profile and the type of match he tends to produce.