Real Madrid vs Monaco (Euroleague): odds and bets 22.01.2026

Real Madrid welcomes Monaco in a Euroleague matchup with the feel of a playoff game: two teams built to compete in “real” games, where every possession counts. The game will be played on Thursday, 22 January at the Movistar Arena.

For me, the context of the schedule and the trend are key here: Madrid comes in with a very competitive mindset and, above all, with a reliability at home that is making a difference this season. Monaco, for its part, usually travels well when it controls the pace, but in Madrid, any defensive lapse is paid for dearly. If the game opens up and there is an exchange, I see a home advantage; if it is played in the middle of the court and gets messy, the match will be tight.

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The Whites are going into this clash in very good form, with a solid recent run and a sense of finding continuity on both sides of the court. At home, they are proving to be a wall and are also arriving with confidence and relatively fresh legs in the European marathon, something that is very noticeable when the game enters periods of back-and-forth play.

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Monaco arrives with the typical profile of a dangerous team: competitive, skilled and capable of surviving bad spells without breaking down. That said, away from home they need to be very consistent at the back so as not to give away points, and on a court like Madrid’s it is not enough to be ‘correct’: they have to be close to defensive excellence, especially in the first possessions of each quarter.

Summary of the key factors in this match

• Home advantage: Madrid usually steps up a notch at home and punishes unforced errors heavily.
• Pace management: if Monaco manages to reduce possessions, the likelihood of a close game increases.
• Outside shooting: when Madrid scores from outside, it breaks the opponent’s script; if not, Monaco gains momentum.
• Fatigue and runs: the periods after the break and the start of the fourth quarter could be decisive.

Real Madrid vs Monaco: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Over 149.5 points. Odds 1.50

In the Euroleague, when two teams with the ability to punish in transition and the talent to generate quality shots face each other, I find it hard to see a particularly low score unless the pace is very slow. And here, with Madrid playing at home, I expect periods of acceleration and runs that will push the total up. For me, this is the ‘safe’ bet if you don’t want to commit to a winner.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid wins + Over 164.5 points. Odds 3.40

This is the pick with “history”: if Madrid imposes its energy at the Movistar Arena and Monaco is forced to score in spurts to keep up, the game could enter that exchange territory where the home team usually feels more comfortable. I like it because it doesn’t depend on a blowout, but on a logical script: a hard-fought victory with enough scoring.