Real Sociedad – Athletic Club Bilbao (La Liga): odds and picks 01.11.2025

A tense Basque derby with little to give away. Real Sociedad are inconsistent: in the league they have a record of 2-3-5, with 10 goals scored and 14 conceded, and at home they alternate between good spells and lapses (narrow victories against Mallorca and Sevilla, but defeats against Rayo and Barça). They also have problems up front: Karrikaburu is out with a soleus injury and will miss the derby, which reduces their rotation and threat in the box.

Athletic are more reliable structurally, but just as inconsistent, out of the European places, and bring a statistic that carries weight in a game like this: they are the team that has conceded the fewest goals in the first half this season (only 1), while Real Sociedad have only been ahead at half-time in 1 game all season. Translation: tight first halves and low scores.

H2H and derby pattern: historically even series with low scores (average ~2.5), with a slight overall advantage for Athletic in the modern era. In addition, in six of the last eight league visits to Anoeta, Athletic scored exactly one goal, another clue to a tight match.

I expect a controlled first half hour with few advantages. A trench warfare derby: Real Sociedad with more possession but with little real advantage between the boxes; Athletic organised, comfortable in midfield and dangerous on the break and from set pieces.

Real Sociedad will try to dictate play with Oyarzabal between the lines, but they struggle to create clear chances without a clear reference point; Athletic are more comfortable in midfield, organised and with quick transitions involving the Williams brothers.

If anyone strikes, I see a greater likelihood of it coming from a mistake or a set piece than from a long move. With this script, Under and X2 gain value.

Predictions for Real Sociedad – Athletic

BeniThe conservative one

Under 2.5 goals, odds 1.55

Historically a low-scoring derby, Athletic concede very little in the first half and Real Sociedad need a lot of passes to create a clear chance. In addition, Athletic’s “almost closed” first halves and the lack of scoring continuity from the txuri-urdin point to a low score. Scores that “fit” with what I expect: 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1.

BetoThe bold one

Athletic wins & Under 3.5. Odds 3.20

If they take the lead, they know how to “shut down” games; Anoeta tends to get bogged down in derbies. Plausible result: 0-1. I think they have more quality and are in better shape going into the derby, as well as having a more reliable defence. Tactically, I also think they have more options and solutions with Ernesto Valverde.