Sabalenka vs Rybakina (Australian Open): odds and picks 31.01.2026

The women’s final of the 2026 Australian Open brings us a clash of power and competitive spirit: Aryna Sabalenka versus Elena Rybakina. Both players base much of their success on their serve and first ball after serve, so the match could be decided by small details: who protects their second serve better, who manages moments of doubt better, and who converts the few break points that arise first. If the score is close, experience in finals and mental strength will be worth their weight in gold.

Date, time and where to watch Sabalenka – Rybakina

• Tournament: Australian Open 2026 (Grand Slam)
• Date and time: Saturday 31 January
• Venue: Melbourne Park (Rod Laver Arena), Melbourne (Australia)
• Surface: Hard court

Sabalenka vs Rybakina: odds on the match winner

Sabalenka’s current form

Sabalenka arrives in Melbourne feeling like she is on autopilot: aggressive from the first shot, very solid with her serve + forehand pattern and with the confidence of a champion. What’s more, the fact that she is back in a final in Australia reinforces her reading of the game: she knows when to step up and when to slow down so as not to give away games. If she maintains her discipline with her second serve and avoids brief lapses in concentration, she will be a very tough opponent to beat.

Key factors

In a match like this, Sabalenka has two clear advantages. The first is mental: when the tension rises, she tends to make bold decisions and live well with mistakes, which is key against a power hitter like Rybakina. The second is her ability to put pressure on the return as soon as she detects a vulnerable second serve; she doesn’t need many opportunities to break. However, she also has a “risk point”: if she goes on a streak of unforced errors by trying to close out the match too quickly, she can get herself into trouble. The start is very important: if she wins the first set, she usually becomes a steamroller.

Rybakina’s current form

Rybakina arrives with a very clear plan and a personality that is perfect for finals: outward calm, flat shots and a constant feeling that a couple of good serves can change a set. On hard courts, her ball runs a lot and, when she finds height with her serve, she makes the match go at her pace. If she gets off to a good start and doesn’t rush the rallies, she has real weapons to fight for the final until the last point.

Key factors

The key for Rybakina is her serve and the first ball after the serve: if she dominates there, she minimises her exposure to long rallies, which is where Sabalenka usually gets the most out of her intensity. In addition, her “low-variance” profile helps her not to panic if she loses a stretch of the match; she just keeps executing. The risk for her is twofold: if her first serve percentage drops, Sabalenka can bite into her second serve, and if the match goes to deuce, she will need patience to avoid giving away points in a hurry. In finals, her challenge is to maintain her level when it comes time to close out the match.

Head-to-head statistics: Sabalenka vs Rybakina

Although their styles are similar in terms of power, the numbers help to understand why the match-up is usually so close: rankings, results trends and head-to-head records mark a very real rivalry.

Conclusion: Sabalenka has the overall advantage in rankings and H2H, but Rybakina is one of the few who can match her on serve. If tie-breaks or long sets occur, key moments (break points and set points) may weigh more heavily than the “average quality” of play.

Our prediction(s) for Sabalenka – Rybakina

BeniThe conservative one

Over 19.5 games in the match. Odds 1.40

Based on the profiles of both players, this is a match that tends to have many games on serve: dominant serves, short points and few “cheap” breaks. With that scenario, the over is usually a logical option even if the match is decided in two sets, as long as there is a close set (7-5 or tie-break). It is a relatively low-risk pick for a final between two of the best servers on the circuit.

BetoThe bold one

Rybakina wins 2-1. Odds 3.00

If you want high odds with a solid argument, 2-1 for Rybakina fits with a back-and-forth match: one set each dominating with their serve and a third decided by a couple of big points. Elena has the power to steal sets without needing to dominate the rallies, and if she reaches a decisive set without being mentally behind, she can impose her rhythm. Low stake: Sabalenka’s experience in Melbourne is a real factor.