Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks (NBA): odds and bets 07.01.2026

An interesting matchup given the context: it’s being played in Sacramento, and in Spain we’ll see it in the early hours of Wednesday, 7 January 2026. At this time of night, with two somewhat inconsistent teams, I expect a game of streaks, the kind where one bad quarter can ruin your plan… or give you a valuable bet if you’ve read the script correctly.

Overall, I’m looking at two things: loss control and rebounding. Dallas tends to grow when the pace slows down and the game becomes a more “serious” exchange, while Sacramento needs to run and find quick points to avoid getting stuck. If the game becomes physical and possession times are long, the total score may suffer.

Sacramento Kings latest

Sacramento is struggling in the paint: Domantas Sabonis is still out with an injury, and that is very noticeable in rebounding, offensive continuity and second chances. In addition, there are important names that have been appearing as doubts in recent games, so it is advisable to keep an eye on the final report before tip-off.

Latest news on the Dallas Mavericks

Dallas also arrives with some players out. Kyrie Irving remains sidelined, and they have had availability issues in the frontcourt (with Dereck Lively unavailable). From there, the key is whether Dallas can maintain its defensive level and not rely on perfect outside shooting to win the game.

Summary of key factors in this match

• Kings’ interior absence: without Sabonis, the ceiling on rebounding and generation near the basket drops.
• Perimeter losses for the Mavs: without Irving, Dallas loses creativity and tends to play more “under control”.
• Pace: if Sacramento manages to run, they gain options; if Dallas slows them down, they feel comfortable.
• Market reading: Dallas is usually the favourite by several points and the total is in the high range.

Sacramento Kings vs Dallas Mavericks: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Dallas Mavericks to win (ML). Odds 1.45

My cautious pick is an away win. Dallas, even with injuries, seems more reliable to me in the “ground game”: if the pace doesn’t pick up, they tend to compete better and punish mistakes. Sacramento, without their inside presence, may struggle to maintain consistency for 48 minutes. For a low-profile bet, it’s the most logical option.

BetoThe bold one

Dallas Mavericks -5.5 (handicap) + Under 233.5 points. Odds 3.20

Here I am looking for a specific scenario: Dallas imposing control, defence and a slower pace, winning by a clear margin without needing to go 15+ points ahead. With the injuries and both teams’ tendency to rely on shooting streaks, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some slow stretches and a final score below a high line. It’s more demanding, but it makes sense if the game is “close”.