South Africa – Cameroon (AFCON): odds and bets 04.01.2026

We are facing an AFCON 2025 round of 16 match where the context weighs almost as much as the football itself: a do-or-die game, a more subdued pace and a great deal of emotional management. South Africa arrives with the reputation of being a ‘dangerous team’, and Cameroon with that mixture of solidity and skill that often makes the difference in qualifying rounds.

The key, for me, is who imposes their game plan. If it becomes a back-and-forth affair, South Africa has the legs and the punch; if it gets bogged down and comes down to details, Cameroon tends to be comfortable. Also, keep an eye on the tournament statistics: South Africa has scored 5 and conceded 4, while Cameroon has scored 4 and conceded only 2. That already gives you an idea of where each team stands.

South Africa

I see South Africa as a team that competes very well when the game breaks down. In the group stage, they did what they had to do: 2-1 against Angola, 0-1 against Egypt and 3-2 against Zimbabwe to get into the last 16. Two wins out of three in a demanding group, and with the character to survive a crazy game like the last one.

In terms of tournament statistics, their profile is very clear: five goals scored and four conceded. They have punch up front, but they concede more than they would like, especially when they lose their shape after a turnover or when their opponents attack them down the flanks with speed. Even so, I like the fact that they don’t depend on a single player: Lyle Foster and Oswin Appollis have been the main contributors (2 goals each), and Tshepang Moremi is also making a contribution (1). When Foster can hold up the ball and Appollis receives it with his back to goal to run onto, South Africa grows in stature.

That is their weak point: if Cameroon manages to make it a long game, with few transitions and lots of positional attacks, South Africa struggles more to create clear chances. But if they manage to get ahead or find spaces, they are one of those awkward teams that drag the game into the mud and force you to trade blows.

Cameroon

Cameroon, on the other hand, comes in with a record more befitting of a ‘big tournament’: 1-0 against Gabon, 1-1 with Ivory Coast and 2-1 against Mozambique. That leaves them with 7 points in the group and a reputation as a difficult team to beat, because they concede little and rarely break down.

Looking at their performance, I’m left with two thoughts. The first: they are reliable defensively (only 2 goals conceded in the tournament). The second: they don’t need to produce a lot to win games, which is very valuable in knockout stages. Up front, they have spread the load: Karl Etta Eyong and Christian Kofane have come through at important moments, and Bryan Mbeumo has already contributed in terms of creativity.

And then there is the context, which I am not overlooking: Cameroon has experienced turmoil around the bench and has travelled without heavyweights such as André Onana and Vincent Aboubakar, in addition to the injury absence of Frank Anguissa. Paradoxically, this sometimes unites the group and makes it more pragmatic: fewer names, more structure.

For me, Cameroon has the advantage if it manages to take the game to a scenario of control, duels and patience. Where it could get stuck is if South Africa forces it to run backwards and attacks the backs of the full-backs with continuity.

My predictions for South Africa vs Cameroon

BeniThe conservative one

South Africa or draw (Double chance 1X) – odds 1.53

Here I am buying into a very specific idea: in 90 minutes, I see a close, very detailed match, where a draw is a natural result (and Cameroon doesn’t usually mind extending it). South Africa has already shown that it knows how to compete even when the game gets messy, and it also comes into the match with offensive confidence. With 1X, I’m covering the scenario of an even match and staying on the side of the team that can do damage in transitions if Cameroon breaks down.

BetoThe bold one

South Africa to win (90′) – odds 3.50

Yes, Cameroon is the favourite due to its strength, but that’s precisely why I think South Africa’s odds are very playable if you like to look for value. My reading is clear: if South Africa scores a goal (from a set piece, transition or an isolated play by Foster or Appollis), it can get into a very uncomfortable mode for its opponent. Cameroon is not a machine for generating chances; it is being efficient. In a knockout game, one action can change everything. And at 3.50, it seems like a sure thing to me.