Spain vs Turkey (2026 World Cup Qualifier): odds and picks 18.11.2025

A huge match in La Cartuja on November 18th to close Group E of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers.

Spain are flying: a perfect five wins, 19 goals scored, and for me, the key stat: not a single goal conceded throughout the entire phase. Turkey, on the other hand, arrive in Seville with a guaranteed play-off spot, 12 points from 15, and only one defeat… precisely the 0-6 suffered at home against this very Spain side.

The competitive context significantly dictates the match script: Spain are practically good with any result other than losing by seven goals or more to finish first, while Turkey would need a miracle to snatch the lead from them.

That, added to La Roja‘s current form and the harsh precedent in Konya, leads me to expect a dominant Spain, with long periods of possession and counter-pressing after losing the ball, and a more reactive Turkey, looking to run at them with Arda Güler, Kerem Aktürkoğlu, and company.

Spain

Spain arrive in ‘big team mode’: five wins in five, a 19-0 goal record, and a spectacular streak of official matches without defeat. They come from a convincing 0-4 victory in Georgia with a brace from Oyarzabal, a goal from Zubimendi, and another from Ferran Torres, demonstrating that even with significant absences, they maintain a very solid structure and well-drilled automatisms.

The absences, in fact, are the big caveat of the match: Lamine Yamal is out due to groin problems, and Rodri, Nico Williams, Carvajal, Gavi, Pedri, and Morata will also be unavailable. Even so, the probable starting XI remains very competitive: Unai Simón; Porro, Laporte, Cubarsí, and Cucurella; Merino, Zubimendi, and Fabián; and up front, Baena, Oyarzabal, and Ferran. A midfield with plenty of control, attacking thrust, and the ability to maintain the match tempo.

At home, Spain have crushed the opposition: 4-0 against Bulgaria and 2-0 against Georgia, with total dominance and very few chances conceded. The only doubt is whether, with so many attacking absences, they might lose some individual flair on the wing. Even so, they are a very reliable team, with clear tactical superiority and a virtually impenetrable defence in this phase.

Turkey

Turkey arrive with mixed feelings. Their record is good: 4 wins and 1 defeat, 15 goals scored and 10 conceded, and a convincing performance against Georgia and Bulgaria. But their big stain is the 0-6 against Spain, a match where they were totally overwhelmed in pace, pressing, and quality.

Since that blow, they have reacted well: 6-1 in Sofia, 4-1 against Georgia, and 2-0 against Bulgaria. Montella maintains a very recognisable plan: 4-2-3-1 or 4-3-3, with Çalhanoglu as the organiser, Arda Güler as the creative focus, and very direct wingers like Kerem Aktürkoğlu or Kenan Yıldız attacking spaces. Arda arrives in good form, heavily involved in circulation and key to creating chances.

The problem remains defensive: Turkey struggle without the ball, concede a lot against top-tier opponents, and leak goals easily when the game opens up.

Away from home, however, they feel comfortable in more open scenarios, with end-to-end games, something that could happen if Spain occasionally lose their structure. Even so, they must be more cautious than in Konya to avoid being too exposed.

Referee: Felix Zwayer

The designated referee is the German Felix Zwayer, a match official with extensive international experience and a regular in highly demanding matches.

He is a referee who tends to show quite a few cards: he usually issues between 4 and 5 yellow cards per match and has accumulated a relatively high number of red cards throughout his career.

He has previously refereed both Spain and Turkey. He officiated the Turks in a very tense duel, where he showed several cards. He has also refereed Spain twice, with La Roja winning on both occasions. He is a referee who allows a certain intensity, but quickly stops protests and foul play.

Given the context of the match and the anticipated tension, it would not be unusual to see a total of 4 to 6 yellow cards.

My Predictions for Spain vs Turkey

Based on how each team arrives, the most likely script is a dominant Spain, generating a high volume of attack, and a Turkey side waiting for their opportunity on the counter or from a set-piece. The 1X2 odds are heavily skewed towards La Roja, so it makes more sense to look for alternative markets.

BeniThe conservative one

Over 2.5 goals in the match. Odds 1.50

Spain come from matches with 3, 6, 2, 4, and 4 goals, showing a very stable attacking line. Turkey arrive with scorelines like 3-2, 4-1, 6-1, or 2-0, and were only kept scoreless against Spain. Both teams generate a lot, and the 0-6 precedent suggests that as soon as a goal arrives, the game could open up.

BetoThe bold one

Spain wins and both teams score (Spain win & BTTS: Yes). Odds 2.80

Here I’m looking for pure value. Spain are solid at the back, but Turkey arrive with 15 goals in 5 matches and an attacking trident capable of scoring against anyone if they find space. Furthermore, with qualification all but secured, Spain might allow themselves certain lapses that open a window for a Turkish goal.

On the other hand, I find it very difficult for Turkey to keep a clean sheet against a Spain side that averages almost 4 goals per match in the group. At odds above 2.50, this is a very interesting pick.