Tottenham vs Arsenal (Premier League): odds and bets 22.02.2026

This derby comes in a very unusual context: Tottenham are facing it in the midst of turmoil and with a new manager, while Arsenal are serious title contenders and have a consistency that often makes the difference in the Premier League. In games like this, I don’t just focus on the “derby = madness” aspect: I look closely at the emotional moment and, above all, each team’s ability to stick to the plan when the game heats up.

The key for me is the first strike. Arsenal often score first, and Spurs have been conceding too early lately; if Arteta’s side take the lead, they can manage the pace more sensibly. Now, if Tottenham manage to go into the break on level terms, the atmosphere in the stadium could push them on and turn it into a game of details (set pieces, second plays and cards).

Tottenham

I see Tottenham as being heavily influenced by two things: results and injuries. Their recent run in the league has not been good (two defeats in a row and a draw in their last three), and this is evident in their decision-making: the team alternates between periods of bravery and periods of defensive disconnection. Even so, I don’t buy into the idea that Tottenham are “dead”: when they find their rhythm and feel pushed on by their stadium, they can string together 10-15 minutes of high pressure and attacks that change the game.

The real problem lies in the starting eleven. They arrive with absences and doubts that break their automatic responses, especially in defence and in midfield creativity. If key players are missing or not physically fit, Spurs find it very difficult to maintain width and, above all, to defend their weak side when Arsenal change direction and attack patiently down the wings.

At home, Tottenham need two things to compete with Arsenal: (1) to dare to press high without breaking down and (2) to threaten behind the full-back, because otherwise the game will be played 30 metres from their goal. With the change on the bench, I expect an intense start, but also a risk: if they don’t choose their moments well, Arsenal will find them between the lines and force them to run backwards, which is where they suffer the most.

Arsenal

Arsenal come into the game as leaders and, beyond the noise of the derby, what convinces me is their consistency as a “big team”: even when they don’t shine, they get the job done. Their recent form shows clear signs of this: they have won games away from home by big margins, they have also secured narrow victories through maturity, and when the game is not going their way, they know how to draw without losing their emotional control.

I also note the pattern at the start: Arsenal often score first, and against a Tottenham side that concedes before settling in, that can be decisive. If Arteta’s side go 0-1 up, they force Spurs to take more risks, and that’s where Arsenal are extremely dangerous, attacking spaces and punishing mistakes.

In terms of structure, Arsenal are more stable: even when rotating, they maintain their height, pressure and mechanisms. With Tottenham so patchy, my reading is that Arsenal can do damage on the outside and with second-line attacks… as long as they don’t get caught up in an anxious exchange of blows. If they play calmly, they will have chances.

Referee: Peter Bankes

Bankes is a rather interesting referee in terms of cards for a derby: he usually gives around four yellow cards per game and is not one to ‘let play continue’ without limit when the game breaks down. In a Tottenham-Arsenal game, that usually translates into cautions for cutting off transitions, especially for midfielders and full-backs.

If I’m going for card markets, I keep a close eye on the outside lane (duels between wingers and full-backs) and the pivot area: that’s where tactical fouls accumulate when the game becomes back and forth and nerves start to fray.

My predictions for Tottenham vs Arsenal

BeniThe conservative one

Arsenal wins or draws (X2) and Over 1.5 goals. Odds 1.52

This is my “management pick” for a derby: I don’t need to nail the 1X2, but I do need the match to have a minimum scoring pace. And I think it will for two reasons. The first: Tottenham, with injuries and doubts, will find it difficult to go 90 minutes without conceding, and they have been conceding easily. Secondly, Arsenal are on the offensive and tend to strike first. With X2, I cover the derby factor (a draw is always possible if Spurs compete with pride), and with +1.5, I avoid being killed by a match that is too close due to nerves.

BetoThe bold one

Arsenal to win and Both Teams to Score (2 & BTTS). Odds 3.10

Here I’m going to take a chance with a specific scenario: Arsenal are the favourites at the moment, but I don’t expect a ‘comfortable’ game at the back. In a derby, even a struggling Tottenham side usually finds 1-2 good chances through pressure, set pieces or transitions. However, if Arsenal scores first, it will force Spurs to stretch themselves… and that is precisely what Arsenal needs to punish them. This bet pays very well because it requires two things (victory + home goal), but it fits with what I am seeing: Arsenal is more reliable, Tottenham is capable of biting once, and it will be a tense match that tends to break down in stages.