Van Veen vs Aspinall (PDC World Masters): odds and picks 31.01.2026

This is a really intriguing matchup in a format that can flip fast: best-of-7 sets, but each set is only best-of-3 legs. That combination creates a strange balance — there’s enough distance for quality to show over time, yet every set is basically a sprint where one missed double can cost you the whole mini-battle.

From a betting angle, I’m looking at Van Veen’s scoring ceiling and recent H2H edge versus Aspinall’s experience and ability to win ugly. If this becomes a clean, high-scoring contest, I lean Gian. If it turns into repeated tight legs where both players get one dart at double under pressure, Nathan’s resilience and match craft can pull it into a deciding set scenario.

Gian van Veen

Van Veen has come into this tournament with a strong platform and, crucially, he’s already shown he can handle Aspinall in a big televised setting. In their recent meeting (earlier this month), Gian beat Nathan 7–4 with the better overall numbers — not just scoring, but finishing as well. That matters because in this World Masters set format, you’re constantly deciding sets on tiny margins: one hold, one break, done.

What I like most about Gian is how quickly he can take a set away from you. In best-of-3-leg sets, a couple of heavy visits are often enough to create a break chance, and Van Veen is the type who can hit a burst of 140/180 scoring that forces the opponent into awkward finishes or “must-hit” doubles. When he’s playing at that level, you’re basically defending every leg.

The question mark is always how he reacts when the match gets messy. Aspinall is brilliant at turning contests into stop-start scraps, and younger players can sometimes lose their natural rhythm. If Van Veen’s doubling dips for a set or two, he can drop 2–1 sets without actually playing badly — and that’s the danger in this format.

Nathan Aspinall

Aspinall is one of the players I trust most when a match becomes a pressure test. He’s comfortable in set play, he resets well between sets, and he doesn’t tend to carry frustration — which is huge when you can lose a set in a couple of minutes. He also arrived in good nick in Round One with a standout performance level, which tells me his scoring is there.

Nathan’s best route here is to keep the scoreboard tight and make it about timing. He doesn’t need to win a 25-leg war; he needs to win the decisive leg in each set. If he can steal one early set against the darts, he can start to drag Van Veen into those uncomfortable “one chance at double” moments where experience counts.

The concern for Aspinall backers is finishing consistency. When he’s not sharp on the outer ring, he can give away sets that he’s competed well in — and against a scorer like Van Veen, you simply don’t get endless chances. If Nathan’s checkout rate is even slightly off, Gian will punish it quickly.

My picks for Van Veen vs Aspinall

BeniThe conservative one

Van Veen to win. Odds 1.53

I’m happy taking the straight win price here because it sits in that sensible range and it matches what I see stylistically. Van Veen has the scoring ceiling to create more break chances across seven sets, and he’s already beaten Aspinall recently, which gives me confidence that the matchup suits him if he’s finishing at a decent level. Over this distance, I expect Gian to produce more of those “one explosive leg that decides the set” moments.

BetoThe bold one

Correct score — Van Veen to win 4–2. Odds 5.00

This is the bigger-price angle I like because it doesn’t require Aspinall to be poor — it just requires Van Veen to be the better player in the key legs. I can absolutely see Nathan pinching a couple of sets through experience and pressure play, especially if he starts fast. But I still lean towards Gian winning enough decisive legs to close it out without letting it reach 4–3. In my head, 4–2 is the most natural landing spot: competitive overall, but with Van Veen edging the critical doubles late on.