Ballon d’Or odds 2026 after World Cup: Harry Kane, Lamine Yamal, Lionel Messi
The Ballon d’Or odds 2026 have shifted dramatically after the conclusion of the World Cup, with Spain’s victory over Argentina having an impact on the top five favourites for this season’s award
The 2026 Ballon d’Or prize, given to the best player of the past season, will factor in the added layer of the World Cup, where the performances of some of the star candidates will have a massive bearing on who the award will go to.
While the winner is usually picked from the team that won the Champions League, this year’s award will be heavily influenced by the result of the World Cup, which holds more weight than any other collective prize in the world of football.
With Spain defeating Argentina in the final, the updated Ballon d’Or odds after the World Cup look rather different to how they did prior to the tournament, with the 1-0 win for La Roja having a big impact on the list of favourites.
The likes of Lamine Yamal, who enjoyed a superb season with Barcelona, and Rodri, who captained Spain to World Cup glory, have been given a major boost in their bid to win the Ballon d’Or, although many others like Harry Kane, Lionel Messi and Kylian Mbappé are still in with a shot after fantastic individual seasons.
Who is the 2026 Ballon d’Or favourite?
Harry Kane – 7/4
The current favourite for the 2026 Ballon d’Or is Harry Kane. Despite not winning the World Cup, the Englishman has had a terrific season with both club and country.
His numbers with Bayern Munich have been astonishing, scoring 61 goals in 51 appearances across all competitions, winning the Bundesliga and reaching the semi finals of the Champions League.
With England, he scored six goals in the World Cup as the Three Lions fell short in the semi finals against Argentina.
Kane has stood out not only for his goals but his all-round play, where he is often seen dropping deep to create play and linking up with his teammates.
While the Ballon d’Or award is rarely given to a player who did not win the Champions League nor the major international competition of a given year, Kane is still seen as the favourite after an extraordinary campaign with Bayern and England.
Lamine Yamal – 9/4
The teenage superstar has moved up to second place in the 2026 Ballon d’Or odds, having won the World Cup with Spain on the back of another superb season at club level with Barcelona.
With the Catalans, Yamal helped Hansi Flick’s side to another LaLiga title ahead of Real Madrid despite the club’s financial problems, and also won the Supercopa de Espana earlier in the year against their arch rivals.
Heading into the World Cup, Yamal was behind several Paris Saint-Germain players in the odds after the French side won their second successive Champions League title, but after winning football’s biggest competition the 19-year-old has put himself in with a big chance of winning his first ever Ballon d’Or.
He entered the World Cup on the back of an injury, and it took time for him to get up to speed with Spain, but he gradually grew into the tournament and helped his country in the knockout stages with his direct running and dribbling ability, and is now likely to sit on the 2026 podium.
Rodri – 9/2
Manchester City and Spain midfielder Rodri has also moved significantly up in the rankings after captaining his country to their second ever World Cup title, and winning the Golden Ball, handed to the best player in the tournament.
The 30-year-old was the central hub of this Spain side who tortured their opponents with their constant passing and moving. The combination of his technical ability with his vision and understanding of the game made Spain an unstoppable force this summer in North America.
Rodri won the Ballon d’Or in 2024 after winning the European Championship with Spain and the Premier League with Manchester City. While things didn’t go to plan with City this season, the World Cup win have boosted Rodri’s chances and few would have any complains were he to reclaim his prize.
Kylian Mbappé – 5/1
Kylian Mbappé has enjoyed another exceptional season on an individual level. The France captain helped his country to fourth place at the World Cup, and eventually won the Golden Boot after scoring 10 goals and making two assists in the tournament.
With Real Madrid in 2025/26, he scored a whopping 42 goals in 44 matches. But with Los Blancos going trophyless for a second consecutive season and France not reaching the World Cup final, Mbappé may have to wait at least another year before getting his hands on the Ballon d’Or award.
Lionel Messi – 7/1
Lionel Messi completes the top five Ballon d’Or favourites, after another remarkable World Cup campaign.
At the grand old age of 39, the Argentina captain carried his nation to a third final in 12 years, scoring eight goals and providing four assists along the way.
Many feel he was harshly denied the World Cup Golden Ball award. In this summer’s tournament, he completed a streak of scoring in 10 consecutive matches, something never previously achieved, while he also broke the all-time World Cup goalscoring record (21), surpassing Miroslav Klose, before being overtaken by Mbappé with those two goals against England in the third-place playoff.
While playing in MLS certainly puts him at a disadvantage, his incredible performance in the World Cup in what is likely to have been his final tournament make him among the candidates.
Outside the top five
Just outside the top five is last year’s Ballon d’Or winner, Ousmane Dembélé at 20/1, who helped PSG to the Champions League with eight goals in 13 European matches.
Fabian Ruiz is a surprise name in seventh place, also at 20/1, but he is the only player to have won the Champions League and the World Cup this season, which put him in a unique position.
Completing the top 10 Ballon d’Or favourites list are France’s magician Michael Olise, England’s engine Jude Bellingham and the World Cup’s young player of the tournament, Pau Cubarsí.
When is the 2026 Ballon d’Or gala?
The 2026 Ballon d’Or prize will be announced on October 26, at an award ceremony in London.
A jury of top sports journalists from around the world will cast their votes, picking from a 30-man shortlist put together by the editorial teams of France Football and L’Equipe.
