How can England finish top of their World Cup group against Panama?
England head into their final Group L match against Panama knowing they still control their own destiny. Here’s what the Three Lions need to do to finish top of their World Cup group and who they could face next.
England know a win over Panama should be enough to secure top spot in Group L, although goal difference could still play a role depending on Ghana‘s result against Croatia.
Despite a disappointing result against Ghana on Tuesday, the England World Cup group remains finely poised heading into Sunday’s England vs Panama clash on Sunday at 22:00 BST, where the Three Lions have a good chance of ending the night as group winners.
However, Thomas Tuchel’s men may need a positive result to even ensure qualification with everything still to play for in Group L, so let’s take a look at the key England group permutations ahead of the final round of matches.
What do England need against Panama to top the group?
- Win and maintain a better goal difference than Ghana = top
- Draw and hope Ghana do not beat Croatia
- Lose and they are unlikely to finish first
In short, if Ghana avoid defeat against Croatia, England need to equal or better Ghana’s result in that game and they will win Group L. The complicated bit is that this includes goal difference, which could come into play due to the tied head-to-head between the Three Lions and the Black Stars.
This means that if England win 1-0 against Panama but Ghana beat Croatia 3-0, the Ghanaians would overtake England on goal difference and top the group. So, while it’s not mathematically in England’s hands, in reality a comfortable win against Panama should confirm England as group winners regardless of what Ghana and Croatia do.
Of course, Croatia will be aiming for a win against Ghana and that could put them through as group winners if England fail to win. If Croatia top the group, England would likely go through in second even if they lose to Panama, thanks to their superior goal difference over Ghana, who could still qualify in third.
England’s World Cup group as it stands
| Position | Team | Played | Wins | Draws | Losses | Goal Difference | Points |
| 1 | England | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Ghana | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Croatia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Panama | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
Can England qualify if they lose to Panama?
There are scenarios in which England can lose and still qualify. Indeed, this could even be confirmed before the game as it depends on results in other groups thanks to the new World Cup format in which the eight best third-placed teams will go through.
If Croatia beat Ghana and England lose Panama, with a sufficient goal difference swing that puts England third, Tuchel’s side would still be almost certain to go through as one of the better third-placed teams. The same applies to Ghana should they finish third and Croatia if they draw against Ghana to finish third with four points.
For the third-placed team in Group L to guarantee going through with four points, they would only need the third-placed teams in four of the 12 groups to end up on three points. South Korea in Group A and Scotland in Group C have ensured that that eventuality is half complete already.
Here are the other results England would need to go their way:
- Neither Curaçao beat Ivory Coast nor Ecuador beat Germany
- Japan beat Sweden
- Paraguay and Australia do not draw
All this would mean England are guaranteed safe passage to the knockout rounds no matter what happens in their group on Sunday, which could give Tuchel a welcome chance to rest some players.
How important is goal difference?
Goal difference is only likely to be a major factor for England if Ghana thrash Croatia and England scrape past Panama. It could also come into play if Croatia win and England lose heavily.
Who will England play in the knockout stage?
While Tuchel will publicly be taking nothing for granted, it is fairly safe to assume that we will be seeing England in the round of 32 at least. That’s why finishing first, second or third could make a major difference.
If England finish third
It may not be highly probable, but if England finish third they would be looking at a game against the winners of Group K. As things stand, that’s Colombia, but that would change if they lose to Portugal on Saturday night.
If England finish second
If England finish second, they will face the runners-up of group K. In the reverse of the above, that is currently Portugal but it would be Colombia if the South Americans fall to Cristiano Ronaldo’s side.
If England finish first
England will be feeling confident of winning Group L and this is where it becomes hardest to predict given that they will face a third-placed team. This should also serve as a significant incentive to finish the job on Sunday and avoid a trickier game in the next round.
If England emerge as winners of Group L, they will face the third-place team from one of Group E/H/I/J/K. At the time of writing, these are the possibilities that exist:
- Group E: Ecuador, Curacao, Ivory Coast
- Group H: Spain, Uruguay, Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia
- Group I: Senegal, Iraq
- Group J: Algeria, Austria
- Group K: Portugal, DR Congo
As things stand the current projection is that England would face Cape Verde in Atalanta on Wednesday, July 1, at 17:00 BST. Without wanting to get too far ahead of ourselves, a victory in that game could then set up a last-16 match against Mexico in Mexico City on Monday, July 6, at 01:00 BST.
England vs Panama odds and prediction
England are the clear favourites to beat Panama and it is likely that would be enough to secure top spot in the group. Market analysis suggests England have a 83% chance of winning the game against Panama, but don’t expect a major thrashing as Panama tend to avoid heavy defeats and there’s a probability of at least 63% that there will be under 3.5 goals in the game.
With that in mind, a 2-0 or 3-0 win for England are the most likely outcomes with very short odds so you could combine that with Harry Kane to score first at 11/4 for better value. There are also long odds of England winning 1-0, 2-1, 3-1 or 4-0, which all seem like quite likely outcomes.
