Premier League 2026/27 relegation odds: Favourites, value bets and one shock
Hull City, Coventry City and Ipswich Town head the latest Premier League relegation odds ahead of the 2026/27 season. Here’s why bookmakers expect them to struggle.
The 2026/27 Premier League season is fast approaching, with the first match of the season between Arsenal and Coventry taking place on August 22, and bookmakers have already identified the teams most likely to be fighting for survival.
History suggests that at least one newly promoted club usually returns straight to the Championship, and this year’s betting market reflects that trend, as Hull City, Coventry City and Ipswich Town are all among the leading candidates for relegation.
However, there are several established Premier League clubs that are solid value bets, as well as a shock candidate to be relegated.
Premier League relegation odds 2026/27
| Team | Relegation odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Hull City | 1/4 | 80.0% |
| Coventry City | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Ipswich Town | 4/6 | 60.0% |
| Sunderland | 11/4 | 26.7% |
| Fulham | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Leeds United | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 6/1 | 14.3% |
| Nottingham Forest | 7/1 | 12.5% |
| Brentford | 9/1 | 10.0% |
| Everton | 10/1 | 9.1% |
Odds correct as of July 14, 2026.
Hull City, Coventry City and Ipswich Town the favourites
Hull City are the clear favourites to be relegated from the Premier League after returning to the top flight. The Tigers finished 6th in the Championship last season but rose to the challenge of the playoffs, first beating Millwall in the semi-finals before defeating Middlesbrough in the Wembley final to secure an unlikely top flight spot.
Priced at just 1/4, bookmakers believe Sergej Jakirović‘s side face a huge challenge to avoid an immediate return to the Championship. Newly promoted clubs often struggle to bridge the financial and quality gap to established Premier League sides, and Hull begin the campaign with the highest implied probability of relegation at 80%.
That does not mean survival is impossible. Hull defied the odds last season by going from pre-season favourites to be relegated from the Championship to League One, only to end up in the Premier League.
But Hull’s survival this season will largely depend on how well they do in the transfer market, as the club’s budget last season was not one expected to compete in the Championship, let alone the most competitive league in the world.
Coventry City and Ipswich Town are joint second favourites for relegation at 4/6.
Both clubs have earned their place in the Premier League but are expected to face a significant step up in quality over the coming months. For promoted sides, survival often comes down to adapting quickly, picking up points against fellow relegation rivals and strengthening their squads before the transfer window closes.
Frank Lampard‘s Coventry blew the competition away last season in the Championship and appear more ready and able to compete than Ipswich. The Tractor Boys’ task of survival, on the other hand, has become even more difficult after the departure of Kieran McKenna.
Taking his place in the Ipswich dugout is Gary O’Neil, who left his role with Strasbourg at the end of the season. O’Neil has Premier League experience with Bournemouth – where he worked wonders to keep the Cherries in the Premier League in 2022/23 – and with Wolves, where he dragged his side out of the relegation zone before he was sacked in December 2023.
Which Premier League clubs could be value bets?
The relegation betting is not dominated solely by promoted clubs.
Sunderland at 11/4 could be an interesting value bet for relegation from the Premier League. The Black Cats defied the odds last season by securing a Europa League place under Regis Le Bris after a fantastic recruitment drive upon their promotion to the Premier League via the playoffs.
However, the bookmakers appear to believe that Sunderland could suffer from “second-season syndrome” combined with the weight of midweek European fixtures.
Fulham, Leeds United and Crystal Palace are all available at 6/1, suggesting bookmakers believe they could become involved in a survival battle if results go against them early in the season.
With Fulham and Palace starting the season with new managers following very consistent spells with Marco Silva and Oliver Glasner respectively, new bosses Álvaro Arbeloa and Pierre Sage are untested in the Premier League and could start to feel the pressure from the fans if they don’t get off to good starts.
Which teams could be surprise relegation contenders?
Nottingham Forest, Brentford and Everton complete the top ten in the market, and could be surprise relegation contenders. Although none are expected to be among the bottom three at this stage, a poor start or key injuries could quickly see their odds shorten.
Forest in particular narrowly managed to survive last season, and the sale of Elliot Anderson has not helped to boost confidence around the City Ground, despite Glasner’s appointment in the dugout.
With several weeks of the transfer window still remaining, these prices are likely to fluctuate as clubs strengthen their squads.
But if we were to pick out one major shock, it would be Newcastle United at 34/1. The Magpies have already sold Anthony Gordon to Barcelona and Sandro Tonali to Tottenham, and rumours continue to swirl around the likes of Lewis Hall and Bruno Guimaraes.
Eddie Howe has voiced his displeasure at the club’s transfer activity in previous windows, and this will only add to his frustration. If Newcastle fail to turn the transfer window around and get off to a bad start in the league, the wonderful atmosphere around St. James’ Park could quickly turn toxic. And with fewer big stars to help matters on the pitch, Newcastle could be in major trouble.
Can the favourites avoid relegation?
Premier League relegation odds often change dramatically before the season even begins.
Major signings, managerial changes and pre-season performances can all influence the market, while newly promoted clubs frequently outperform expectations once the campaign gets underway.
Recent Premier League seasons have shown that bookmakers do not always get it right. Teams expected to struggle have survived comfortably, while established clubs have sometimes found themselves dragged into unexpected relegation battles.
For that reason, punters should treat the current market as an early indication rather than a full Premier League prediction of how the final table will look.
With the transfer window still open and plenty of business expected before the opening weekend, the Premier League relegation odds are likely to continue evolving throughout the summer.
For those looking to back the market before the season starts, Hull City remain the bookmakers’ strongest candidates to go down, with Coventry City and Ipswich Town also expected to face a difficult first season back in the top flight.
However, as Premier League history has repeatedly shown, survival is often decided by recruitment, momentum and how clubs cope with the pressure once competitive football begins.
