2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: odds and picks 07.12.2025

The 2025 World Championship arrives at Yas Marina with everything still to play for and a script that could hardly be better: Norris, Verstappen and Piastri are battling it out for the title in the final race, with the British McLaren driver defending a 12-point lead over the Dutchman and 16 points over his teammate.

Abu Dhabi is usually a circuit of management and precision rather than pure risk: low probability of rain, pleasant temperatures at sunset and very abrasive asphalt that punishes those who are too aggressive with their tyres. McLaren arrives with the best overall package of the year, but Red Bull has made up a lot of ground in recent rounds and Mercedes has established itself as the third car, capable of getting into the fight if those in front get tangled up.

Psychological pressure, possible team orders at McLaren and the management of penalties or track limits could be decisive on a track where overtaking is possible… but expensive.

Information: date, time and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Yas Marina Circuit, Yas Island (Abu Dhabi)
• Race: Sunday 7 December
• Qualifying: Saturday 6 December

Odds for the winner of the 2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Bookmakers have Max Verstappen as the favourite to win at Yas Marina, slightly ahead of Lando Norris, with Oscar Piastri and George Russell as somewhat more distant alternatives. Kimi Antonelli appears as an outsider with high but interesting odds after his strong second half of the season.

Latest news on the podium favourites

The three big names of the weekend are Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri: between them they have shared the victories in 2025 and are separated by just 16 points in the overall standings. Norris only needs to finish on the podium to be champion, Verstappen is on a roll after his final streak and Piastri will try to take advantage of any internal tension at McLaren to spring a surprise.

Lando Norris

This season has been Norris’s breakthrough year. He has led McLaren in victories and podium finishes and arrives in Abu Dhabi as the World Championship leader thanks to his consistency and several flawless performances in qualifying, where he has been able to convert the car’s superiority into front row grid positions. The Briton has managed the pressure well throughout the year, but McLaren’s strategic error in Qatar, which deprived him of sealing the championship, has reopened the psychological duel with Verstappen.

Yas Marina is a circuit that suits him well: he already achieved pole position and victory in 2024, managing tyre degradation in an exemplary manner against the Ferraris. The MCL39 is well suited to heavy braking and the medium-speed corners of the second and third sectors, and Norris tends to shine in conditions of changing grip between day and night. The key for him will be not to obsess over victory: a simple third place is enough to crown him champion. If he controls the start, avoids trouble with Verstappen on the first lap and keeps a cool head during the pit stops, he remains the strongest contender for both the title and the podium.

Max Verstappen

Verstappen has gone from a difficult first half of the year, with McLaren dominating, to reviving the championship with victories in the final part of the calendar. His win in Qatar, supported by great race management and McLaren’s strategic errors, has brought him back into the fight, stringing together three victories and arriving in Abu Dhabi with momentum on his side.

Historically, Yas Marina is Verstappen territory: he already won convincingly in 2021 and 2023, dominating from start to finish on a circuit where Red Bull has always performed well in terms of traction and top speed. This year, however, he is not starting with a clearly dominant car and will need a perfect weekend: pole position or front row, a good start and an aggressive strategy that allows him to put pressure on Norris. He is practically obliged to win and hope that the Briton finishes off the podium, which may push him to take more risks in wheel-to-wheel battles and tyre management. If the race turns into a strategic one-stop sprint, his instinct and experience in World Championship finals make him the most serious threat to McLaren.

Oscar Piastri

Piastri arrives as the third man in contention, but with a spectacular year behind him: several victories, a great run in the first half of the season and the feeling that he has taken a huge leap in maturity compared to 2024. His 16-point deficit to Norris means he needs to win in Abu Dhabi and hope his teammate finishes outside the top five, which greatly complicates his mathematical chances of winning the title.

At Yas Marina, Piastri already showed pure speed in both qualifying and the race in 2024, although he was somewhat overshadowed by Norris’ victory. The Australian tends to feel comfortable on traction circuits, with medium-support corners and relatively smooth changes of direction, where his clean style shines and is less punishing on the rear tyres. The big question mark will be the internal management at McLaren: the team has reiterated that both drivers are free to fight, but if halfway through the race Norris is in title contention and Oscar needs help, covert team orders could come into play. Even so, he is one of the big contenders for the podium, and if the race is disrupted by a safety car in the final stages, he could be the big beneficiary.

Circuit conditions and weather forecast

Yas Marina is a 5.281 km track with 16 corners, two long DRS straights separated by a chicane, and a twisty final sector that runs under the hotel and alongside the marina. Tyre degradation is usually moderate to high: the asphalt offers a lot of grip but penalises those who slide too much in traction, especially in low-speed hairpins. The resurfacing and reconfiguration in 2021 eliminated slow chicanes and allowed for smoother cornering, favouring race pace and increasing overtaking opportunities.

The weather forecast is typical for Abu Dhabi in December: temperatures around 27-28 °C during the day and around 23 °C at the time of the race at sunset, with no real risk of rain. This means that thermal management will be more related to traffic and dirty air than to extreme heat. In these conditions, Pirelli usually opts for C3-C4-C5 compounds, with one or two pit stops feasible depending on rear degradation and the appearance of safety cars. A safety car, which is quite likely given the narrowness of some run-off areas, can completely change the strategic window.

Comparison between leading teams

McLaren is the benchmark: it has won most of the races in 2025 and has already secured the constructors’ title, with a car that is very strong in traction, braking stability and aerodynamic efficiency. Its weak point has been strategic decision-making under pressure, as seen in Qatar, and a certain vulnerability when defending positions with more worn tyres.

Red Bull, for its part, has evolved a lot during the season: it started behind, but recent improvements have allowed it to match race pace and, on some circuits, even surpass it in tyre management. Verstappen’s package remains particularly strong in qualifying when they find the right window for the soft tyre, which is key on a track where pole position offers enormous control over strategy.

Mercedes has established itself as the third team, with Russell scoring victories and podium finishes on high-load, good-traction tracks. The W16 may not have the peak performance of McLaren or Red Bull, but its race management, reliability and ability to extend stints make it a very serious contender for the podium if those ahead of it complicate their lives. Ferrari, although better than in 2024, is a step behind in pure pace here despite its great double podium finish last year in Abu Dhabi.

Latest results at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

In recent years, Yas Marina has been dominated by Max Verstappen and Red Bull, especially between 2021 and 2023, when the Dutchman racked up victories and pole positions with authority to close out historic seasons. However, the trend changed in 2024, when Lando Norris took pole position and victory with McLaren ahead of the two Ferraris, in a demonstration of pace and race control that anticipated the reversal of fortunes in 2025.

Ferrari has had solid results here, with several recent podium finishes, but has failed to convert those performances into victories, while Mercedes has typically used Abu Dhabi to secure key positions in the constructors’ championship. Yas Marina has historically been a good barometer of the most complete car of the year: whoever performs well here is usually the most balanced package in the championship. That recent history puts McLaren at a slight advantage, but with Red Bull very close, especially in race pace.

Summary of key factors for this GP

• Asphalt and tyre condition: very grippy surface with significant rear degradation; C3-C4-C5 management decisive.
• Car setup: medium-high downforce, good traction in hairpins and stability under braking for DRS zones.
• Mechanical reliability: last race of the year; any problem could decide the World Championship.
• Starting positions: pole position and the front row usually determine the first half of the race; overtaking is very hard on the tyres.
• Pit stop strategy: one or two stops depending on degradation and possible safety cars.
• Weather and neutralisations: stable conditions but high probability of safety cars due to mistakes under pressure.
• Internal management at McLaren: the balance between letting Norris and Piastri race or securing the title could alter the outcome.

2025 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix: my prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Norris finishes on the podium. Odds 1.30

Norris only needs to finish in the top three to be crowned champion, and both he and McLaren are clear that they should not take any more risks than necessary. The car performs very well at Yas Marina and the Briton is extremely reliable in stable racing conditions. A podium finish is the most logical outcome if he manages his start, pace and pit stop windows well.

BetoThe bold one

Verstappen to win. Odds 2.40

Verstappen starts on the front row, controls the race with clean air and Red Bull executes a flawless strategy. It would not be surprising to see the Dutchman win and Norris and Piastri round out the podium.