Arsenal vs Liverpool (Premier League): odds and bets 08.01.2026

A big match at the Emirates on Thursday, 8 January 2026 (matchday 21). I have a pretty clear idea going into this one: Arsenal are playing like leaders and, at home, they are turning every match into a test of patience for their opponents. Liverpool, on the other hand, have been competing well in spurts, but their season has been more inconsistent and they are coming into this match with injuries that will greatly affect their plans.

The key for me lies in two factors: Arsenal’s home strength (very difficult to beat at their stadium) and Liverpool’s ability to survive without their most decisive threat and hold their own in a long game. In addition, the recent precedent (Liverpool’s 1-0 win in the first leg) adds that tactical adjustment: no one here is going to give away space.

Arsenal

Arsenal are top of the table with 48 points from 20 games (15W-3D-2L), and that is not just down to talent: it is down to brutal consistency. What convinces me most is their tendency to win even when the game is stuck in a rut. In their last league games, they have strung together some impressive results: 3-2 against Bournemouth, 4-1 against Aston Villa, 2-1 against Brighton, 1-0 against Everton… they are a team that always finds a way.

At home, the statistic that stands out most to me is their overall performance at home this Premier League season: at the Emirates, they are 9W-1D-0L in the league. Translation: if Liverpool come to “scrape by”, they need the perfect game.

In terms of tactics, I like their 4-3-3 with Raya; Timber–Saliba–Gabriel–Hincapié; and the Ødegaard–Zubimendi–Rice triangle setting the pace and pressing after losing possession. Up front, the focus is on Gyökeres as a reference point to pin down centre-backs and allow attacks from the second line. In terms of absences, they are without Mosquera, Calafiori and Dowman, but I don’t see that disrupting the structure of the starting eleven.

Liverpool

Liverpool are fourth with 34 points (10W-4D-6L) and a more exposed defensive record than usual: 36 goals conceded in 20 games, a high number for a Champions League contender. Even so, their recent form is not bad in terms of results, although it has been inconsistent in terms of performance: they are coming off a 2-2 draw at Fulham, a 0-0 draw with Leeds, and before that they had victories against Wolves, Spurs and Brighton.

It is away from home where I have the most doubts: their away record in the league is 4W-2D-4L. And this, at an Emirates Stadium where Arsenal presses from the first minute, usually translates into a “survival game”: a midfield block, minimising losses and attacking on very select transitions.

The likely starting eleven suggests a 4-2-3-1 with Alisson, Van Dijk–Konaté and a very strong attacking midfielder (Wirtz, Szoboszlai, Curtis Jones) to fight for possession. The big “but” is the list of absentees: Salah (international duty) and Isak (injury), as well as Endo/Bajcetic/Leoni and the doubt surrounding Ekitiké. Without Salah, Liverpool lose that constant threat that stretches the opposition and punishes any mistakes in defence.

Referee: Anthony Taylor

The designated referee is Anthony Taylor. In Premier League 25/26, he has officiated 16 matches, issuing 61 yellow cards, 1 red card and 4 penalties (an average of around 3.8 yellow cards per match).

And there are useful precedents for the card market: for example, Chelsea–Arsenal (1-1) with 7 yellow cards and 1 red card, and Leeds–Liverpool (3-3) with 6 yellow cards and 1 penalty. If the match heats up (and this one looks like it will), Taylor does not usually “swallow” too much.

My predictions for Arsenal vs Liverpool

BeniThe conservative one

Arsenal to win (1). Odds 1.55

I’m going with the favourites here. Arsenal are not only at the top of the table, they are also reliable. At home, their league record is practically perfect (9W-1D-0L) and they are on a winning streak that also includes decisive ‘trap’ matches (Everton away, Bournemouth away). Liverpool has the quality to compete, yes, but away from home they have dropped too many points and, above all, they are without Salah and Isak, two players who change the type of threat and force a more conservative approach. If Liverpool sits back, Arsenal has the resources to break them down: set pieces, second balls and a lot of attacking from the right side with Ødegaard.

BetoThe bold one

Draw (X). Odds 4.20

This is my sensible “long shot”. Why a draw? Because Liverpool, even with injuries, can plan a very specific game: low tempo, avoid losses early on, and look for the match to be decided by details (a side free kick, an isolated transition, a move by Wirtz/Szoboszlai). Furthermore, in these big games, the leader often carries the emotional weight of the match, and that opens the door to a 1-1/0-0 result if the goal does not come early. If you want a pure value read, the X at 4.20 seems more interesting to me than “Liverpool wins” as a gut bet.