Aston Villa vs Newcastle (FA Cup): odds and bets 14.02.2026

Aston Villa–Newcastle at Villa Park, played in the fourth round of the FA Cup on Saturday, 14 February 2026. Even so, the league context weighs heavily: Villa are 3rd and Newcastle 10th in the Premier League, with a 14-point difference that is noticeable in terms of form and consistency.

The key for me is in the match script: Villa at home usually imposes pace and volume, and Newcastle arrives more “broken” due to important losses and a recent streak of tough results against top rivals. If Villa manages to take an early lead, I see an open game (and that’s where goal markets come in); if not, Newcastle will try to take it to a more physical back-and-forth, where cards may appear.

Aston Villa

I see Villa as being in a very competitive position. In their last few games, they beat Brighton 1-0, drew 1-1 at Bournemouth, lost 0-1 to Brentford, and before that they beat Salzburg 3-2; what’s more, they recently beat Newcastle 0-2 (an important psychological factor). This fits with their position in the league: 3rd with 47 points, with a profile that is more reliable than “brilliant”, but sufficient to pick up points week after week.

At Villa Park, when it comes to betting, I like to look at long-term trends: they have won 13 of their last 15 home games in all competitions, and that is no coincidence; Emery tends to adjust the pressure levels well and activate his attacking players with advantages on the wings. In addition, their recent home record against Newcastle also favours them: Villa have won five of their last six games at Villa Park against the Magpies.

Weaknesses? They are missing players in midfield/structure: Matty Cash, Kamara, McGinn and Tielemans, among others, are unavailable. This could affect their continuity with the ball and their pressing after losing possession, which is where Newcastle tend to punish them when they have the legs to do so.

Newcastle

Newcastle, on the other hand, are on a more inconsistent run of form, with results that leave their mark. In their last five games: a 1-2 win at Tottenham, but then 2-3 against Brentford, 3-1 against City, 4-1 against Liverpool and 1-1 against PSG. These are scores that speak of a team with the talent to compete, yes, but one that is struggling to close out games and protect its area when the opposition really pushes.

In the Premier League, they are 10th with 36 points and a very “flat” goal difference (37 for, 37 against), typical of a team that alternates between highs and lows. If you add to that the context of the cup (a single match and, if they draw, extra time/penalties), it’s no surprise that they might prioritise not breaking down… but when Newcastle protects itself too much, it tends to lack control of the pace.

And watch out for the absences: Bruno Guimarães, Schär, Livramento and Joelinton, among others, are listed as unavailable. For me, that’s the big ‘but’: without a backbone (midfielder + centre-back + muscle), the team loses aggression and, above all, second plays. If Villa charges the area and wins rebounds, Newcastle suffers.

Referee: Christopher Kavanagh

The designated referee is Christopher Kavanagh. In 2025/26, he has officiated 27 matches with 109 yellow cards and 1 red card (averaging about 4.0 yellow cards per match), a profile that I do not consider “ultra-cardish”, but consistent when the game becomes physical.

In the FA Cup this season, his sample size is small, so I wouldn’t read too much into it; what I do take into account is that, in an Aston Villa–Newcastle match with a lot of transitions, he tends to give yellow cards when the game breaks down.

My predictions for Aston Villa vs Newcastle

BeniThe conservative one

Aston Villa will qualify. Odds 1.61

This suits me because Villa are in better form overall and, above all, Villa Park is making a difference: they are 13/15 at home, and Villa have already shown that they can win at St James’ Park (0-2). In a cup match where a draw takes you to extra time, I prefer to cover myself with “qualifies” rather than a straight 1X2. The odds of 1.61 are fair for a bankroll management pick.

BetoThe bold one

Aston Villa wins at half-time. Odds 2.75

This is the “savvy” pick. In scenarios where Newcastle arrives with key players missing (Bruno/Schär/Joelinton), they tend to start more conservatively and struggle to withstand their opponents’ initial onslaught. If Villa come out as they usually do at home — high pressure, pace and crosses from the wings — I wouldn’t be surprised if they wanted to get the game on track early. The odds of 2.75 are very playable for a low/medium stake.