Atlético Madrid vs Levante (La Liga): odds and picks 08.11.2025

LaLiga EA Sports Matchday 12 fixture, Saturday 8 November (Riyadh Air Metropolitano). The two sides come into the game in contrasting form: Atlético are 4th with 22 points and a goal difference of +11, while Levante are 16th with 9 points and a goal difference of -5. At home, Atleti is performing as one of the best home teams in the league.

Key factors: recent form and quality in key areas. Atleti are on a solid winning streak (3-0 against Sevilla and 3-1 against Union SG) and are looking reliable at the back; Levante alternate between good attacking phases and defensive lapses (20 goals conceded).

Also keep an eye on the fixture list: November sees many games in Madrid for Simeone’s side, which tends to boost their home form.

Atlético Madrid

They are in good form. In their last five matches: 3-1 against Union Saint-Gilloise, 3-0 against Sevilla, 2-0 against Betis, a European setback in London and 1-0 against Osasuna. At the Metropolitano, they are among the top three home teams in the league in terms of points and recent offensive production (nine goals in their last five official matches). That pattern of dominance as hosts is what I value most for this pick.

Individually, Julián Álvarez leads the attack and creates the most chances (the team’s top generator of ‘big chances’), while Simeone’s structure minimises opposition attacks.

In the infirmary, Le Normand and Musso are listed as out, and Pablo Barrios is a reasonable doubt: the goal is to get him ready for this match after discomfort in his adductor. If he doesn’t make it, the midfield can be balanced with Koke/Llorente and minutes for Gallagher or Cardoso.

Another angle I like: a strong start. In terms of volume and pressure after losing possession, Atleti tend to close down and win corners/attacks early on; in addition, they are playing at home again on 8 November after 1 November and 4 November, with routine and no long trips.

Levante

An uncomfortable team when they string together passes and play inside, but inconsistent. Their last five games reflect this ups and downs: 1-2 vs Celta, 4-3 in the Cup against Orihuela, 1-1 in Mallorca, 0-3 vs Rayo and 0-2 in Oviedo. They concede too much (20 goals in 11 games) and struggle to keep a clean sheet in demanding away games. In the table: 16th with 9 points.

Names to watch: Etta Eyong (goal-scoring impact), José Luis Morales (creates shots on goal) and Jeremy Toljan (gets forward and crosses; also stands out in terms of ‘big chances’ created).

Negative: injuries and suspensions; Iván Romero is listed as out, along with Oriol Rey and Pablo Martínez; Unai Vencedor is suspended. If the plan is to defend deep and break on the counter, these absences reduce their threat to punish transitions.

Historically, Levante has caused scares at the Metropolitano, but the most recent head-to-head matches show a more stable Atleti (0-2 in the 2023 Cup and overall dominance in H2H). With the current context of form and absences, the competitive gap is clear.

My predictions for Atlético Madrid vs Levante

BeniThe conservative one

Atlético wins at half-time. Odds 1.57

This fits with Atleti’s tendency to start strongly at home and the visitors’ defensive fragility. The combination of high pressure and set pieces usually translates into a lead before half-time. In comparable markets, a home win at half-time is around 1.57, which is a typical angle that bet365 moves in that range for such uneven scenarios.

BetoThe bold one

“Both teams to score – NO” + Atlético to win — Odds 2.60 (Bet Builder)

BTTS: No is at 1.80 (bet365) and 1X2 Atlético is around 1.22–1.26; combined in the bet builder) exceeds 2.50. The logic: Levante struggles to sustain long attacks away from home, arrives with offensive losses, and Atleti concedes little at home. If the script is one of Rojiblanco control and few concessions, 1-0/2-0 wins probability.

Alternatively, for those who prefer a handicap, Atlético -1.75 is priced at 1.85 on bet365: one step lower than the combined odds, but with a high payout if they win by 2+ and a partial push depending on the lines.