Barcelona vs Copenhagen (Champions League): odds and picks 28.01.2026

Barça goes into the final matchday of the league phase needing to win and, if possible, by a wide margin: it is 9th with 13 points, fighting to get into the Top 8 and avoid the play-offs. Copenhagen, 26th with 8 points, needs an almost perfect game to keep its options alive.

For me, the key is in the script: Barcelona on the opponent’s half, high possession and a lot of volume on the wings; and Copenhagen trying to survive with a mid-low block and quick breaks. Also, keep an eye on the context at Camp Nou: since returning home at the end of November, Barça has strung together victories and posted very solid numbers at home.

Barcelona

I see this Barcelona side as quite recognisable under Flick: high tempo, pressing after losing the ball and lots of chances when they manage to get into the final third. They are top of LaLiga (17-1-3), and that domestic consistency is evident in how they manage ‘routine’ matches without going crazy. In the Champions League, they are coming off a 2-4 win in Prague, a result that keeps them alive for the Top 8.

At the Camp Nou, I am also seeing them as much more reliable: six wins since returning to the stadium and a very favourable goal difference (17 for, 3 against). For this match, the starting eleven has already been confirmed with Joan García; Koundé, Cubarsí, Gerard Martín and Balde; Marc Casadó and Eric García; and up front Raphinha, Fermín, Roony Bardghji and Lewandowski. With that formation, I particularly like how Raphinha and Balde can punish the full-back’s back, and how Lewandowski pins down centre-backs to open up channels for the second line to arrive.

Weakness: when the opposition manages to break the first line of pressure, Barça struggles to defend the space behind. If the match gets bogged down, it is in their interest not to concede silly transitions and to convert their dominance into goals early on.

Copenhagen

Copenhagen arrive with less margin for error and a clear reality: away from home in Europe, they tend to spend long periods defending, and if they don’t compete forcefully in the box, the games become endless for them. Even so, they are not a naive team: they are disciplined, with periods of good organisation and the ability to cause damage on the transition or from set pieces.

In the Champions League, they are coming off a 1-1 draw with Napoli, a result that keeps them alive, although very much dependent on what happens on other pitches. In their league, the context is also irregular: they are 5th after 18 games with 28 points, so they are not exactly on a roll.

The confirmed starting eleven is a 4-4-2 with Kotarski; Meling, Marcos López, Pereira, Suzuki; Clem and Mads Emil Madsen in the middle; Elyounoussi and Achouri on the wings; and Cornelius with Dadason up front. My reading of this is simple: Cornelius is the anchor to hold up, offload and force second plays; Elyounoussi/Achouri are the ones who must run when Barça lose the ball. On the downside, they have injuries that affect rotation and profiles, such as Mattsson (cruciate ligament rupture) and Huescas (knee injury).

If Copenhagen wants to get something out of the game, it needs to survive the initial onslaught, not give away side fouls and be very effective with the few it has.

Referee: Benoît Bastien

The match will be refereed by Benoît Bastien. In the Champions League, he tends to be a relatively clear-cut referee: this European season he has officiated seven matches, issuing 32 yellow cards and one red card (an average of around 4.6 yellow cards per match), as well as awarding four penalties in those matches.

For card betting, this fits me better with a match where Copenhagen defends for a long time (tactical fouls to slow down transitions) than with an uncontrolled back-and-forth. If Barça scores early, the risk of a “broken game” decreases and, with it, the need to cut off plays at the wrong time.

My predictions for Barcelona vs Copenhagen

BeniThe conservative one

Barcelona/Barcelona (half-time/full-time). Odds 1.49

Here I am looking for a logical scenario: Barça coming out strong at home and wanting to get the Top 8 on track without speculating. Copenhagen, out of necessity, cannot limit themselves to losing 1-0 ‘with dignity’, but they also do not have the squad to go all out from the first minute: the normal thing is for them to hold on with a block and for Barça to accumulate chances until they break the deadlock. I like this bet because it turns the expected superiority into a specific goal: to be ahead at half-time and finish it off in the second half.

BetoThe bold one

Barcelona and Over 3.5 goals (Barcelona/Over 3.5). Odds 2.80

If I go for the “spicy” pick, I do so because of the context: Barça needs to win and it is in their interest to do so by a good margin, and they are finding scoring consistency at Camp Nou. In addition, Copenhagen has the resources up front to add to the scoreboard on a transition or set piece (and that helps a lot to exceed the line). The idea here is not a mandatory “rout”; a 3-1, 4-0 or 4-1 is perfectly plausible if the game opens up after the first goal.