Benfica vs Real Madrid (Champions League): odds and picks 28.01.2026

The Da Luz stadium is hosting a match that has all the makings of a big night: Benfica arrives with the emotional (and almost mathematical) obligation to win, while Real Madrid can seal their direct passage with a positive result. In the league phase, Madrid has accumulated 15 points in 7 games and is in 3rd place; Benfica is in 29th place with 6 points, so the pressure is clearly on the Lisbon side.

The key, for me, lies in the script: Mourinho usually turns these duels into a game of details (midfield block, periods of aggression, “mini-games” on the wings), but this Benfica side has been unpredictable. Madrid, on the other hand, is finding goals with ease and has Mbappé as a major difference-maker: 11 goals in this Champions League.

Benfica

When I look at Benfica’s current form, I see two sides. In the Portuguese league, they are very solid: 3rd after 18 games, still unbeaten (12W-6D-0L) and with a very high goal difference (38-11). But in Europe, the blow is evident: they are coming off a 2-0 loss to Juventus on matchday 7, a defeat that left them in dire straits and is also their fifth loss in this phase of the league.

Recent results show the volatility typical of Mourinho’s teams in construction: they followed up a 4-0 win over Estrela and a 0-2 win over Rio Ave with a 1-0 defeat to Porto (Cup) and a 1-3 defeat to Braga (League Cup). In terms of formation, I would put them in a 4-2-3-1 with Trubin; Dedic–Otamendi–Araújo–Dahl; Barrenechea and Aursnes; Prestianni, Sudakov and Schjelderup behind Pavlidis. When betting, I focus on two things: (1) their need to go for the game can open up spaces behind the full-backs, and (2) Pavlidis is the offensive ‘thermometer’: if Benfica manages to get the ball into shooting areas, they compete; if not, they get stuck and the game becomes a long one.

Injuries to watch: Ríos, Lukébakio, Samuel Soares, Sidny Cabral, Henrique Araújo, João Veloso and Bah are listed as injured in the preview.

Real Madrid

Madrid arrive with an interesting mix: a recent change of manager and, even so, winning momentum. The 6-1 win over Monaco on matchday 7 was their eighth victory in their last ten league games. In addition, they are second in LaLiga with 51 points after 21 games and have strung together five consecutive victories. In other words, they are a team that is competing well every three days and, even if they don’t always shine, they punish you when you give them an opportunity.

In their last few games, we have seen that punch: 6-1 against Monaco, 2-0 against Levante and 1-2 against Atlético; however, they also had setbacks in domestic cup competitions (3-2 in Albacete) and lost a close final (3-2 against Barcelona). The factor that most influences my prediction is Mbappé: he has just scored against Levante and scored twice against Monaco and Villarreal. Tactically, I see them playing 4-3-3 with Courtois; Valverde, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Güler, Tchouaméni, Bellingham; Mastantuono, Mbappé and Vinícius. My reading is clear: if Madrid can overcome the initial pressure, they have a huge advantage in attacking spaces (Bellingham + Mbappé) and loading the far post (Vinícius). And keep an eye on the historical data: Madrid are unbeaten in their last 10 games against Portuguese clubs (8W-2D).

Injuries/doubts: Mendy, Rüdiger and Militão are listed as injured and Trent Alexander-Arnold is listed as doubtful.

Referee: Davide Massa

Massa is the referee appointed for Benfica–Real Madrid and has already refereed Madrid in the Champions League in the 1-1 draw against RB Leipzig (2023/24 round of 16 second leg). In that season, that match saw several yellow cards (for example, Vinícius and Tchouaméni were among those booked), a profile that fits with a referee who does not tend to ‘let things go’ too much when it comes to contact.

Looking at recent figures, in 2025/26 (all competitions) he has officiated 13 matches, issuing 47 yellow cards and 2 red cards; in the Champions League, he has officiated 3 matches, issuing 7 yellow cards, 1 red card and awarding 2 penalties. For card betting, I read it like this: a tense match (Mourinho + Benfica’s need) and a referee with a tendency to show yellow cards when the game gets physical.

My predictions for Benfica vs Real Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Mbappé to score at any time. Odds 1.66

It fits for me in terms of context and role. When Benfica is forced to go on the attack, it concedes transitions, and that’s where Madrid is lethal. Mbappé is also proving to be a reliable goalscorer and has top statistics in this Champions League (11 goals). I don’t need Madrid to win or the match to be a back-and-forth affair; with one or two advantages in the game, he can settle it. Honest note: this selection is a tad above the 1.30–1.60 range, but in terms of risk profile, it’s still the “safest” of my favourites for this match.

BetoThe bold one

Draw. Odds 4.20

Here I’m looking for the Mourinho script: a tactical match, broken rhythms, Benfica competing better than their position suggests (because they usually push hard at home), and Madrid accepting the “useful point” if the match gets bogged down. If Benfica takes the lead, I think a typical 1-1 draw is very possible (and that’s where the draw gains value). It’s a high-variance bet, but the odds make up for it if you think the match will be played more in the head than in the exchange of blows.