Cameroon vs Morocco (AFCON): odds and bets 11.01.2026

A thrilling AFCON quarter-final match in Rabat (Stade Prince Moulay Abdellah) on Friday, 9 January 2026. At this stage of the tournament, the context is important: Morocco is playing “at home,” is the favourite, and has a very reliable defence (only one goal conceded in the tournament), but it also has the pressure of managing a demanding environment and a sometimes more conservative game plan.

The key for me lies in the clash of styles: Cameroon is comfortable in knockout matches, where physicality and second plays reign supreme; Morocco, on the other hand, is imposing control and rhythm, and has a standout player making the difference: Brahim Díaz (4 goals in 4 matches).

Cameroon

Cameroon arrives with the short tournament “chip” activated: 7 points in the group stage and a squad that has become tougher with each game. In the group stage, they left a good impression of competitiveness: victory against Gabon (1-0), draw with Ivory Coast (1-1) and a hard-fought win against Mozambique (2-1) after falling behind. And in the round of 16, they made a statement by eliminating South Africa (2-1) with goals from Junior Tchamadeu and Christian Kofane.

The strength I value most is their ability to survive bad spells: even when they are struggling (as against South Africa), they know how to hold on and strike at the right moment. In addition, the team is performing well despite the noise surrounding the squad and some tough decisions in the selection (without big names such as Onana or Aboubakar), which speaks volumes about their mental strength.

If I had to find a downside to bet on, it would be that they will face a defence that concedes very little, and Cameroon is not a team that creates 20 chances: they thrive more on duels, crosses and isolated actions. Even so, with Mbeumo and Kofane in form, I would not rule them out at all to take the game to a low-scoring and nervous finish.

Morocco

Morocco, as hosts, have done what is expected of a contender: they finished top of their group with seven points and a very solid defence. In the group stage, they beat Comoros (2-0), drew with Mali (1-1) and closed with a very convincing 3-0 win over Zambia. In the round of 16, however, they suffered more than the result suggests: 1-0 against Tanzania with a goal from Brahim Díaz, dominating but failing to kill off the game.

The betting analysis is clear: Morocco manages the tempo better, concedes little and tends to impose itself at home. But watch out for the injury list: Ounahi is ruled out for the rest of the tournament, and Amrabat was a doubt (question mark/management), in addition to the uncertainty surrounding Saïss. Even so, Regragui has a plan B and, above all, he has Brahim in tournament mode: four goals and the feeling that something happens every time he steps into the box.

As for the likely starting eleven, I think a 4-2-3-1 formation makes sense, with Bounou; Hakimi, Aguerd, Masina, Mazraoui; Amrabat, El Aynaoui; Brahim, Saibari, Ez Abde; El Kaabi. If Morocco takes the lead, I think they are a very “professional” team that will close out the game without going crazy.

My predictions for Cameroon vs Morocco

BeniThe conservative one

Morocco to win (1X2). Odds 1.56

I’m not going to overcomplicate things here: in AFCON qualifiers, it’s often a case of ‘who concedes the least’, and Morocco has been the most reliable at the back (1 goal conceded in the tournament). What’s more, they’re playing in Rabat and they already showed against Tanzania that, even if they don’t shine, they know how to get through tight games. Cameroon always competes, yes, but if Morocco scores first, I think it will be very difficult for them to let the game slip away.

BetoThe bold one

Brahim Díaz to score at any time. Odds 3.40

I love this one because it’s in line with what’s really happening in the tournament: Brahim has scored in 4/4 games and, more importantly, he’s coming up big at crucial moments (including the round of 16). Cameroon concedes more and when the game gets stuck, Morocco ends up looking for those passes from Brahim between the lines so he can turn and finish. For odds above 3.00, I think this is one of the bets with the best logic/risk ratio in the match.