Celta Vigo vs Lille (Europa League): odds and picks 22.01.2026

A very serious match at Balaídos (Thursday 22/01/2026) that looks set to be a turning point in the league: Celta and Lille are tied on 9 points and, at this stage, a win puts you halfway into the play-offs. I like these kinds of fixtures because the market tends to focus on ‘name’ vs ‘name’, but the context is what matters: Balaídos is a tough place to play and Celta are in very good form in the league.

The key for me is in Celta’s midfield, because it is very limited: Ilaix Moriba is suspended and the team is also losing players due to transfer market moves, which may force Giráldez to adjust his formation (there is talk of a 4-3-3 with Aspas as an inside forward). Opposite them is a Lille side with more European experience, but somewhat affected by recent results and with some important absences. With that mix, I expect a tense match, with periods of high tempo and decided by small details.

Celta Vigo

I have been following Celta since December and what convinces me most is the team spirit: they compete, they don’t give up and they are picking up a lot of points in the league. In fact, they are on a very positive run (recent victories such as 3-0 against Rayo, 0-1 in Seville and 4-1 against Valencia), and when a team of this profile enters “confidence mode”, it shows in Europe: duels won, less fear of taking risks and a more passionate Balaídos.

Now, the important factor for this match is the absence of Moriba due to suspension and the domino effect that this may cause. Giráldez himself is left with fewer “natural” midfielders, and that usually has an impact on two things: clean passing (first pass) and defending transitions. My reading is that Celta will try to compensate with structure: more people inside, Aspas moving closer to the base and Borja Iglesias holding up the ball up front to give the team some breathing space.

At home, Celta also tend to have an extra gear to push when the game gets stuck: crosses from the wings, set pieces and second plays. That is their strength: they don’t need to dominate for 90 minutes to win. Their weakness, on the other hand, is that if Lille manage to run behind the full-backs, Celta can suffer because they are at their best when the game is ‘under control’.

Lille

Lille arrives with more of a ‘European face’ than it seems, but also with a lot of noise around it. In the league, it is coming off a heavy defeat (0-3 against PSG on 16/01) and was also eliminated from the Cup (1-2 against Lyon on 11/01). That normally affects morale… although it can also activate reaction mode: travel, big game, and focus on the competitive aspect.

In terms of style, Lille seems to me to be a team that tends to feel comfortable when the opposition speeds up: they close ranks, steal the ball and break out. And watch out for this here, because Celta sometimes get carried away at Balaídos and that’s when Lille can find dangerous transitions. If they beat you in the midfield battle, they force you to defend deep and the game becomes uncomfortable for you.

You also have to look at the physical side of things: for example, Benjamin André has a shoulder problem, and they also have long-term injuries (such as Ousmane Touré) and some recent ones (Hamza Igamane was seriously injured in January). This reduces rotation, and in such a tense match, the second half can depend a lot on substitutions and fresh legs.

My overall feeling: Lille are not at their peak, but they do have a clear idea of how to compete away from home. If they don’t get carried away by the atmosphere, they have what it takes to get a result.

Referee: Harm Osmers

The designated referee is Harm Osmers (Germany). For card betting, I like to keep an eye on him because he is a fairly card-happy referee: this season he has given out a high number of yellow cards in general (around 4+ per match) and in his European matches he also tends to give out a high number.

I can’t find any relevant recent history with Celta or Lille specifically, so I’m not relying on ‘how he referees them’, but on the pattern: if the match turns into protests, untimely tackles and tactical fouls (very likely given what is at stake), Osmers usually maintains order with cards. I would keep a close eye on the second half in particular: that’s when tactical fouls and yellow cards for stopping transitions increase.

My predictions for Celta Vigo vs Lille

BeniThe conservative one

Celta or draw (1X). Odds 1.40

I’m protecting the context here. Celta are coming in with confidence, playing at Balaídos, and the match is crucial: I don’t see them going out there to give anything away. In addition, Lille are coming off recent negative results and with some significant losses, and when a visiting team arrives at a packed stadium like this, it often means a long match and not necessarily a “victory”. The 1X suits me as a safe bet because it covers the draw (a very natural result in a 9-point vs 9-point match) and leaves you in favour of the home side if Lille falls short physically at the end. For me, it’s the best basis.

BetoThe bold one

Lille to win. Odds 2.88

Here I am looking for a win with a specific reasoning: Celta are affected in midfield by Moriba’s suspension and the lack of alternatives, and that could open a clear door for Lille: steal and break out. If the match breaks down in sections and Celta has to run back more than usual, Lille has the perfect profile to punish them in transitions and take a 0-1/1-2 win. It’s risky because Balaídos weighs heavily and Celta is doing well, but that’s precisely why the odds are high. If you ask me for a bet with “tactical narrative” and value, I’ll go with this one.