England vs Tonga Prediction (Rugby League World Cup) Odds and Bets 17.10.2026

Last update at 15 October, 2026Reading time: 3 minutes

England

Tonga

Rugby League World Cup, 10:05 @ 17.10.2026

England begin their 2026 Rugby League World Cup campaign against Tonga in Perth on Saturday, 17 October, with a difficult opening test ahead. Brian McDermott’s side won all three meetings with Tonga in 2023, but the Pacific Islanders arrive with a powerful NRL-based squad and are slight favourites this time.

Our England vs Tonga prediction points towards a tight, physical contest, with total points looking more appealing than picking an outright winner.

England vs Tonga: Match Details

Rugby League World Cup 2026

📅 Date	Saturday, 17 October 2026
⏰ Kick-off	10:05 BST
📍 Venue	HBF Park, Perth
📺 UK TV	Premier Sports
🌍 Stage	Opening group match

England vs Tonga: Form and Team News

England: Looking for a Fresh Start

England’s last international series ended in disappointment, with three defeats against Australia in the 2025 Ashes. McDermott now has a new opportunity to rebuild confidence. George Williams and Harry Smith start in the halves, with Herbie Farnworth and Dominic Young providing attacking quality out wide.

Victor Radley, Junior Nsemba and Kai Pearce-Paul give England plenty of physical presence, but controlling Tonga’s forwards will be crucial.

Tonga: A Powerful Pack With Plenty to Prove

Tonga lost their two Pacific Championships matches in 2025, conceding 34 points against Samoa and 40 against New Zealand. Nevertheless, their World Cup squad looks formidable. Jason Taumalolo and Addin Fonua-Blake lead an imposing forward unit, while Isaiya Katoa offers creativity behind the pack. Lehi Hopoate and Tolu Koula provide genuine pace in the backs.

Tonga have the personnel to dominate territory, but turning possession into points remains the challenge.

England vs Tonga Head-to-Head

England have won all six previous senior international meetings with Tonga, including a clean sweep in their most recent three-match series.

Date	Match	Result
22 Oct 2023	England vs Tonga	22-18
28 Oct 2023	England vs Tonga	14-4
4 Nov 2023	England vs Tonga	26-4
25 Nov 2017	Tonga vs England	18-20

Those results favour England historically, although most of these matches were played on British soil. Perth presents a different challenge.

Key Factors Behind Our England vs Tonga Prediction

Forward battle: Tonga’s powerful pack could give them an advantage through the middle.
England’s halves: Williams and Smith must control territory and keep the defensive line moving.
Recent results: England lost three consecutive Tests against Australia, while Tonga struggled against Samoa and New Zealand.
Head-to-head: England have won every previous meeting, including three victories in 2023.
Scoring potential: Both sides possess dangerous backs, but a tense opening match could limit attacking opportunities.

England vs Tonga Betting Odds

Tonga enter as narrow favourites, despite England’s impressive head-to-head record. The handicap and total points markets suggest a competitive match rather than a one-sided result.

Betting Market	Odds
England to win (80 minutes)	5/4
Draw (80 minutes)	18/1
Tonga to win (80 minutes)	4/6
Under 38.5 Total Points	4/5
Over 38.5 Total Points	1/1
England +2.5 Handicap	9/10
Tonga -2.5 Handicap	9/10
Tonga to Win by 1-12 Points	9/5
England to Win by 1-12 Points	11/5
Dominic Young Anytime Tryscorer	5/4
Herbie Farnworth Anytime Tryscorer	17/10

Odds are subject to change. Check the latest prices, market availability and settlement rules before betting. Compare current prices explore our rugby league betting guide.

England vs Tonga Prediction: Our Betting Tips

Beni

The conservative one

Under 38.5 Points

Odds 4/5

This one has a proper arm-wrestle written all over it. Big tackles, precious few easy chances. I'll take the lower-scoring contest.

Beto

The bold one

Tonga to Win by 1-12 Points

Odds 9/5

That Tonga pack is frightening! England will fight, but I fancy the Pacific Islanders to pinch this one in the final stages.

Under 38.5 Total Points

Category Rugby

Odds

Chooses

Offered by

Daniel HarrisExpert sports betting analyst

Originally from Manchester, Daniel has been following English football and betting on sport for years. He now covers football and tennis as part of the BetBrothers tipster team, researching every selection before sharing it. His approach is simple: follow the sport closely, do the homework and only back a bet when he thinks the odds are worth it.