Georgia vs Spain (2026 World Cup Qualifier): odds and picks 15.11.2025

2026 World Cup Qualifier at the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena (Tbilisi), Saturday, 15 November.

I come with a clear idea: Spain arrives with a well-established plan and practically has qualification in the bag after a perfect start to the group stage (15-0 in goals over four matches), while Georgia needs to get points to avoid being left without options.

The context of the venue, time, and favouritism is clear: a hot atmosphere, yes, but a wide competitive gap in favour of ‘La Roja’ (Spain).

On my board, the key factors are:

1. Spain’s capacity to set up the game in the opponent’s half and minimise Georgian transitions;
2. the status of absences/injuries: Lamine Yamal was released from the squad this week, but the national team still maintains a core group that produces and concedes very little;
3. Georgia’s emotional management after two defeats in October (0-2 vs Spain and 1-4 in Turkey).

With a scenario like this, I expect visiting control and a low-scoring game if there is no early goal.

Georgia

At home, Georgia is strong with a recognisable plan: Mamardashvili holding steady between the sticks, a medium defensive block, and quick breaks to hunt for second balls. But the last direct precedent was clear: 0-2 in Elche, with Georgia having no shots on target and Spain monopolising possession (including a penalty saved by Mamardashvili). That picture clearly reflects the local challenge: to create clear-cut chances when the opposition bottles you up.

They arrive feeling the impact of their recent results (1-4 in Turkey, in addition to the previous defeat against Spain), and this usually leads to a more cautious rather than ambitious match.

If Georgia wants to stay in the competition, they need to execute their first pass correctly after winning the ball and threaten with runs behind the Spanish full-backs, as well as capitalising on set-pieces (corners and wide free-kicks).

My assessment: they will compete for the first half-hour, but if they concede first, it will be an uphill struggle because they lack the consistency to sustain positional attacks.

Spain

Spain is top of the group with a perfect record and without conceding; furthermore, they show variety in how they hurt opponents: ball dominance, set-pieces, and second-line arrivals (Merino, Oyarzabal, Pino in October).

Although there are absences (Lamine Yamal was ruled out this week after inguinal treatment), the collective maintains its automated movements and has shown a very reliable defence. The plan will be recognisable: high press after losing the ball, long attacks, and patience to open up the block.

Key points I value: quick circulation to move Georgia from side to side, sharp crosses into the penalty area, and shots from outside the box if the defensive block drops deep. In the recent fixture, ‘La Roja’ managed the tempo expertly and conceded hardly anything; if they repeat that level of control and reduce turnovers in the final third, they should impose their hierarchy without the need for an end-to-end exchange.

My Predictions for Georgia vs Spain

BeniThe conservative one

Spain to win at half-time (HT). Odds 1.67

I like this because Spain usually starts strongly and pins the game near the opponent’s box early on; furthermore, Georgia struggles to get out when they are pressed. With the 1X2 away win odds too low for the conservative range, the Spain HT bet fits the range and covers many probable scenarios (0-1 at half-time).

BetoThe bold one

Correct Score 0-2 Spain. Odds 6.50

This is the score that best aligns with my assessment: control and a clean sheet for Spain, with Georgia competing but without much firepower against a team that concedes very little. The 0-2 score already happened in the last meeting and, statistically, it fits with a controlled-pace game with few concessions.

If you prefer a bet builder, “Spain HT/FT + Under 3.5 Goals” usually sits around 2.8–3.1, depending on the combinations. Stake adjustment: 1.25 units (u) on the conservative bet and 0.75–1 unit (u) on the risky bet.