Italy vs Norway (2026 World Cup Qualifier): odds and picks 16.11.2025

We have a real World Cup qualifying thriller on our hands at San Siro: Italy host Norway on 16 November in a direct battle for first place in Group I.

The context is very clear: Norway arrive as leaders with a perfect record of seven wins from seven, 33 goals scored and only 4 conceded; Italy are second with 6 wins and 1 loss, 20 goals scored and 8 conceded.

What’s more, there is unfinished business. In the first leg, Norway ran over the Azzurra with a 3-0 win in Oslo and they have since thrashed Moldova (11-1), Israel (5-0) and Estonia (4-1), with Haaland and Sørloth in bulldozing mode.

Italy, for their part, have strung together several victories and arrive following a hard-fought 2-0 win in Moldova, but they would need practically a miracle to snatch the lead. In this context, the match smells like Italy being forced to attack and Norway being ready to punish them on the counter-attack.

Italy

In terms of results, Gattuso’s Italy are in good form: six wins and only one defeat (against Norway, precisely) in seven matches, with 20 goals scored and 8 conceded, plus four clean sheets.

Their recent run is positive, with five consecutive wins and a well-earned 2-0 in Moldova, sealed by a set-piece in the final minutes. They are a competitive, aggressive, and creative team, but they still struggle to finish off matches early.

Gattuso has alternated between a 4-4-2 and a dynamic 4-3-3, featuring attacking full-backs and plenty of runs from deep. The squad list includes key attacking players such as Scamacca, Retegui, Raspadori, Politano, and the young Pio Esposito.

They welcome Barella back after a suspension, but lose Tonali due to an accumulation of yellow cards, and Calafiori arrives with a hip knock, which could complicate their defensive structure.

At home, Italy have been impeccable: three wins from three and without conceding a single goal in their stadium.

Even so, they have two clear weaknesses: they suffer a lot when attacked in behind, and they carry the psychological pressure that, even if they win, they will most likely end up in the play-offs.

They need to control the game without losing shape, as an open match favours the Nordic side more than them.

Norway

Norway arrive in bulldozer mode. Seven matches, seven wins, 33 goals scored and only 4 conceded, making them the best attack and best defence in the group.

They are coming off a 4-1 win against Estonia with braces from Sørloth and Haaland, and have already recorded devastating scorelines such as 11-1 against Moldova and 5-0 against Israel.

Solbakken’s plan is very clear: an intense block, aggressive duels, vertical transitions, and plenty of attacking power. On the wings, players like Nusa or Oscar Bobb easily break lines, while the Haaland–Sørloth partnership is supported by the midfield engine (Thorsby, Berge…).

Haaland has scored 14 goals in this phase, an astonishing number in just seven matches.

Not everything is perfect: the defence has not been tested at the level Italy will demand at San Siro, and Ødegaard missed the last match due to discomfort. Nevertheless, the precedent is clear: a 3-0 win against Italy in the first leg with clear superiority.

In addition, Norway holds a tactical advantage: a draw is enough to practically secure first place, and not even a narrow defeat would drop them from the top spot unless a catastrophe occurs. This allows them to wait, accelerate when necessary, and trust in their finishing power.

My Predictions for Italy vs Norway

Here are my two favourite bets, one conservative and one riskier:

BeniThe conservative one

Norway score at least 1 goal (Over 0.5 goals). Odds 1.60

With an attack averaging over 4 goals per match, having scored in all their fixtures, and with Italy forced to push forward, I see it as highly probable that Norway will find a clear scoring opportunity. For this pick to fail, Italy would have to deliver a perfect defensive performance against the best attack in the qualification group.

BetoThe bold one

Norway do not lose and there are at least 2 goals in the match (X2 + Over 1.5). Odds 2.55

Norway arrive with a perfect winning record, a recent 3-0 against Italy, and immense confidence. Italy, although strong at home, will have to take risks to keep their options alive. This usually opens up spaces, and with Haaland and Sørloth at this level, goals are the expected outcome. The risk exists—Italy could win by a single goal—but as a value bet, I find this to be one of the most interesting of the match.