Jaume Munar vs Daniil Medvedev (ATP Masters 1000 París): odds and picks 28.10.2025

Monday and Tuesday of the Masters 1000 in Paris will feature a clash of contrasts: Daniil Medvedev’s groundwork and tactical reading of the game versus Jaume Munar’s determination and improvement on fast courts.

The Russian arrives after ending his title drought and eager to make his mark indoors; the Balearic player is confident after a good run of form this season and the memory of his victory over Daniil in Miami.

If Munar manages to prolong the rallies, this match could be more exciting than expected.

Date, time and where to watch Munar – Medvedev

• Tournament: Rolex Paris Masters (ATP Masters 1000)
• Date: Tuesday, 28 October 2025
• Venue: Accor Arena (Paris, France) – indoor court.
• Surface: Indoor hard court.

Jaume Munar vs Daniil Medvedev: odds on the winner of the match

Jaume Munar’s current form

Munar arrives in 2025 feeling positive: more competitive away from clay and with several solid weeks under his belt that have allowed him to settle into a ranking range around the top 50. He arrives in Paris after a good run of matches and with no reports of injury.

His consistent style—heavy ball, high bounce and patience—could trouble Medvedev if he manages to vary his height and not rush things.

The precedent set in Miami (a clear victory for the Spaniard) serves as mental reinforcement to believe that he can take a set.

Key factors

The mental aspect favours Munar if he starts off organised and turns the match into a “many more balls” game, avoiding overly flat rallies where the Russian dominates. Physically, he arrives in competition rhythm.

Tactically, the keys are: a high percentage of first serves, punishing Daniil’s deep backhand and not letting him settle into two or three repeated patterns. He does not have a lot of points to defend here, so he can play freely.

The immediate H2H (Miami 2025) reminds him that there is a way if he closes the net well and punishes second serves. Watch out for 30-30 and deuce management: where he usually struggles indoors.

Daniil Medvedev’s current form

Medvedev arrives in high spirits after breaking an 882-day title drought (champion in Almaty) and with his usual weapon on hard courts: an incisive return that allows him to break more than his reputation as a “server” would suggest.

Indoors, when he adjusts heights and takes the ball early, he controls with his flat drive and deep return to the centre. The setback against Munar in Miami serves as a warning: he should not underestimate the Balearic player’s changes of pace.

Objective: impose first serves and command with the open pattern + forehand.

Key factors

Mentally, Daniil is boosted by the title, although his 2025 has had its ups and downs.

If his first serve percentage is high, he suffers little; if not, his back-foot position on the return can give him the same advantage to start long rallies. Tactically, constant variation in serve direction (especially open on deuce) and patience to avoid falling into endless neutral rallies.

The pressure is greater due to favouritism and entering as the top seed in the second round, but his return on hard courts and experience in tie-breaks sustain him.

Head-to-head statistics: Jaume Munar vs Daniil Medvedev

The immediate precedent favours the Spaniard, but the overall statistical profile on hard courts leans towards Medvedev.

Quick conclusion: the basic numbers on hard and indoor courts favour the Russian, but Munar has already shown the plan that works for him: deep returns, varying heights and punishing second serves. If the Spaniard wears his opponent down and avoids traffic in the middle, he can extend sets.

My predictions for Munar – Medvedev