Lazio vs Inter (Copa Italia): odds and bets 13.05.2026

The Coppa Italia final at the Stadio Olimpico, with a very significant ‘psychological factor’: the two sides met in the same stadium not long ago, and Inter thrashed Lazio 3-0. In a final, that alone won’t win you the match, but it does influence the game plan: Sarri needs a more cautious approach and, above all, must prevent Inter from taking an early lead.

This is how I see it: Lazio will try to slow the pace, make it a long game and look for their chance from set pieces or on the break. Inter, on the other hand, are comfortable in finals if they dictate the tempo: a compact defence, clean build-up play, and up front they have the firepower to decide the game with two or three well-executed moves. On top of that, they arrive with the added confidence of having recently secured the Scudetto.

Lazio

Lazio go into this final with a strange mix of emotions: on the one hand, the pride of having made it this far, but on the other, the feeling that the league season has dragged on. That makes this cup their best chance to ‘save the season’: a title always patches things up and, moreover, changes the tone of the whole project.

In terms of momentum, the last head-to-head left a clear wound: the recent 0-3 defeat was a blow to morale and also ended with Romagnoli’s sending-off, which speaks to frustration and the fact that, when they feel outplayed, they can lose their heads in duels. That detail matters a great deal to me given the nature of the match: if Lazio feel inferior on the ball, they will tend to compete more on energy than on clarity.

As for the squad, there are fitness doubts over key players. If Zaccagni isn’t 100%, Lazio lose their ability to break down the left flank; and without a real threat out wide, the plan becomes too reliant on isolated moments and the match going their way in a couple of plays. In a final, that usually translates into long periods of defending, and that’s when you need perfect concentration.

Inter

Inter arrive with the ideal mindset for a final: confidence, fluidity and that sense of a ‘finished’ team that doesn’t fall apart if the match gets bogged down for 30 minutes. In the dress rehearsal against Lazio in Rome, they were far superior: they broke the deadlock early, controlled the tempo and conceded very little.

I really like how Inter compete when it’s a knockout tie: they don’t need to take absurd risks. They can alternate high pressing with periods of midfield block, and as soon as they win the ball, they’re at an advantage because they have clear targets up front and players making runs from deep. Even if Lazio try to close down the central channel, Inter usually find the pass to the weak side to reach the byline or draw fouls out wide.

On injuries and doubts: if Çalhanoglu is out, Inter lose some of their composure and direct set-piece threat, but they still have plenty of options in midfield. And, honestly, in a final, Inter give me more confidence because they know how to win ‘without showing off’: if they go 0-1 down, they manage the game as if they had an internal clock.

Referee: Marco Guida

Marco Guida has been appointed. In a final at the Olimpico, I always expect a tense first half with several ‘tactical’ fouls to slow down transitions, especially if Lazio are forced to chase the ball. The key to cards isn’t just the referee, but the script: if Inter take the lead, there’ll be more ill-timed challenges and yellow cards for cutting out counter-attacks; if the match is evenly balanced until the 70th minute, there’s usually more protesting and more clashes in second-phase challenges.