Leicester – West Brom (Championship): odds and bets 05.01.2026

Championship match (J26) on Monday, 5 January 2026 at King Power Stadium (UK time: 20:00). They are relatively close in the table, but not in terms of form: Leicester are 13th with 34 points (9-7-9, -2) and West Brom are 18th with 31 (9-4-12, -5), so it’s a duel with the ‘smell’ of getting hooked in the upper-middle zone… or getting into trouble.

The key, for me, is the pace. Leicester plays better when it can run and attack with players in front of the ball, but it has had some ups and downs in recent games. West Brom, on the other hand, tends to try to slow the game down and take it to a game of decisions, second plays and details. And keep an eye on the market: the 1X2 is quite open (Leicester 2.25 / X 3.30 / West Brom 2.85), which already tells you that it is not a ‘solid favourite’ but a clash with rough edges.

Leicester

I see Leicester as a team that can dominate stretches of the game, but right now they are struggling to sustain it for 90 minutes. This is perfectly clear from their recent run of form: they lost at Sheffield United (3-1), then beat Derby (2-1), lost to Watford (1-2), took a heavy defeat at QPR (4-1) and then beat Ipswich (3-1). In other words, they alternate between convincing victories and defeats where they fall apart.

Tactically, I think what they have been repeating is important: 4-2-3-1 and a strong intention to progress down the wings. The last eleven featured very “back and forth” profiles (Pereira/Okoli/Nelson/Thomas; James and Skipp in the middle; and players with an edge like Mavididi and Fatawu). When those wingers receive the ball in a favourable position, Leicester creates chances; when they are forced to attack in a static manner and without space, they become more predictable.

If Leicester imposes its rhythm and plays in the opponent’s half, it has the tools to win; if the game becomes muddled, its more vulnerable side emerges.

West Brom

West Brom arrives with a more recognisable pattern: compete, close down space and don’t give anything away. Their last five games also have that typical Championship rollercoaster: they lost at Swansea (1-0), came off a win at QPR (2-1), fell to Bristol City (1-2), lost at Hull (1-0) and before that won at Sheffield United (2-0). It’s not a scary run, but it does tell you that away from home they struggle to turn games into ‘clean’ wins.

I’m very interested in their most recent starting eleven because it gives clues about their plan: Wildsmith in goal; a back line with Taylor/Phillips/Campbell/Styles; and a midfield where Mowatt and Diakité provide legs and order, while Johnston and Iling-Junior appear on the wings to stretch the field and break out. Up front, Grant and Heggebo as striker/second striker. It’s a team that, if it takes the lead, becomes very difficult to play against.

In terms of absences, West Brom are without Josh Maja and Daryl Dike in their latest squad due to injury, which reduces their options for ‘pure’ goals. If the game goes against them, they struggle to change the narrative without those types of players. My take: West Brom compete well if the game is low-scoring and there are few mistakes; if they have to trade blows, they suffer more.

Referee: Stephen Martin

The referee appointed for this Leicester–West Brom match is Stephen Martin. In terms of numbers, he is a referee with a clear tendency to give cards: he averages 4.68 yellow cards per match in his overall sample, and in the 2025/26 Championship he averages 4.83 cards per match (with an average of 23.42 fouls called).

For card betting, this fits with a match where there is a lot of friction in midfield: Leicester need pace and West Brom will try to cut it off with tactical fouls and duels.

With that average, I always value markets such as over 3.5 cards or even look at a line of 4.5 if the match heats up early.

My predictions for Leicester vs West Brom

BeniThe conservative one

Leicester or draw (Double chance 1X) – odds 1.40

Here I’m betting on a very specific match: at home, Leicester should take the initiative and, although they are not a ‘reliable’ team right now, I find it hard to see them losing easily if they don’t get themselves into trouble. Furthermore, the 1X2 odds are fairly even (2.25 / 3.30 / 2.85), so covering ourselves with 1X seems to me to be the most sensible way to side with the home team without committing to the exact result.

BetoThe bold one

Leicester/Leicester (Half-time/Full-time) – odds 3.75

This is my value pick if you believe Leicester will get off to a strong start. The idea is simple: West Brom are coming off the back of games where they have struggled to set the tone away from home, and they also have recent offensive losses, which may make them more conservative at the start. If Leicester score an early goal and take the lead, HT/FT becomes very playable. It’s a bet with variance (because Leicester has its off days), but that’s precisely why the odds are so high, and I think it’s an attractive way to approach the match.