Liverpool vs Brighton (FA Cup): odds and bets 14.02.2026

Although this is not a Premier League match, recent history carries weight: Liverpool already beat Brighton 2-0 in the Premier League on 13 December 2025.

For me, the match will be decided by two factors: (1) Liverpool’s ability to impose their rhythm and punish mistakes in transition, and (2) Brighton’s emotional resilience, as they arrive with a fairly flat run of results (lots of draws/low-scoring matches) and several players carrying injuries. If Brighton can withstand the initial onslaught, they can make the match uncomfortable; if they concede early, Anfield tends to turn it into an avalanche.

Liverpool

I see Liverpool as a curious mix: inconsistent in the league, but with very high peaks when they find space and feel comfortable. They are coming off a 1-0 win at Sunderland (Premier League), but before that they lost 2-1 to Manchester City and, just before that, they enjoyed a 4-1 win over Newcastle. In Europe, they have also made a serious impression: 6-0 against Qarabag and 0-3 against Marseille. To me, this sequence tells me that if the opponent breaks down, Liverpool has dynamite; if they close down the channels and force them into long positional attacks, they can get stuck.

The most delicate point is the injuries. It has been confirmed that Conor Bradley is out for the rest of the season with a knee injury; Giovanni Leoni will also not return in 2025/26 (cruciate ligament); Frimpong is out for “a few weeks” with a muscle injury; and then there is the hard blow of Endo, stretchered off at Sunderland, who looks set for a long spell on the sidelines. With this in mind, I am paying close attention to how he protects the right flank and whether he can sustain high pressure without losing his balance.

Brighton

Brighton arrive with the feeling that they are struggling to convert dominance into victories. Their recent results paint a clear picture: 0-1 against Crystal Palace, 1-1 against Everton, 1-1 against Bournemouth and 2-1 at Fulham; in between, they lost 1-0 at Villa Park (on 11 February). They are a competitive team, but they live too much in the “details of the game” and, when they fall behind, they lack the punch to come back.

In addition, they arrive with doubts about key players. In the build-up, it was noted that Yasin Ayari is close to returning (shoulder) and that Mats Wieffer is pushing for a comeback, while Solly March, Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas face long-term absences. In a match at Anfield, those absences weigh heavily because Brighton needs legs to sustain defensive transitions, as well as alternatives from the bench if the match becomes a back-and-forth affair.

If Brighton wants to have a real chance, for me the key is to be very clinical when they steal the ball: they don’t need 15 chances, they need 3-4 good ones… and to convert one. That’s why I like “aggressive” markets such as first goal, rather than the pure 1X2 in their favour.

Referee: Stuart Attwell

The designated referee is Stuart Attwell. In the 2025/26 Premier League, he has officiated 14 matches with 66 yellow cards, as well as 1 sending-off and 5 penalties awarded (averaging around 4.7 yellow cards per match), a fairly “card-happy” profile when the game heats up.

I like to look at precedents with these teams: this season, Attwell refereed Liverpool 2-0 Aston Villa (1/11/2025) with 5 yellow cards, and also Everton 2-0 Brighton (24/08/2025) with 7 yellow cards and 1 penalty. That doesn’t mean he’ll repeat the script, but it does confirm that he doesn’t hesitate to take action if the match becomes more intense.

My predictions for Liverpool vs Brighton

BeniThe conservative one

Liverpool to win. Odds 1.51

I’ll be direct here: in a cup match at Anfield, with Brighton struggling for results and with injuries, my reading is that Liverpool has more weapons to break the game open. In addition, they are coming off a recent stretch with strong scores. Brighton, on the other hand, is too settled for a draw or a narrow defeat, and that usually gets punished at Anfield.

BetoThe bold one

Brighton scores the first goal. Odds 2.60

This is my ‘sneaky’ pick. Why am I going for it? Because Liverpool are coming into the game with problems in defence/adjustments (confirmed injuries and Endo recently injured), and when there are changes in the structure, it sometimes shows in the first 15-25 minutes: a silly loss, a ball behind the defence… and Brighton have players who can run and take advantage of a single mistake. I’m not saying that Brighton will dominate; I’m saying that if they have a single plan (steal and break out), the first strike could be theirs. And at odds of 2.60, for a low stake, I think it’s a smart way to “hunt” a match scenario without going against Liverpool’s final victory.