Liverpool vs Manchester City (Premier League): odds and bets 08.02.2026

A big game at Anfield with two teams that, even when they are not at their best, tend to turn this fixture into a high-tempo duel with plenty of chances in the box. Liverpool are in the European places but under pressure to close in on the Champions League, while City are fighting for the title, so the competitive context is intense and there is no room for speculation.

The key, for me, is in the script: if City manages to settle into possession, it will force Liverpool to run and defend in a mid-low block; if Liverpool finds transitions, the game breaks down and goals, corners and “panic” actions (tactical fouls, yellow cards, etc.) appear. In these types of games, I tend to trust goal markets more than pure 1X2.

Liverpool

Liverpool comes into the match after a somewhat inconsistent season in the league, but with clear signs that the level of competition is rising at Anfield. When playing at home, they press higher up the pitch, steal the ball faster and turn the match into an exchange that favours their attackers. In recent matches, they have had mixed results, but the important thing is that they have regained their offensive punch, and this is evident in the ease with which they create chances when they can run.

In attack, I focus on two things: 1) the constant threat in transition and 2) the ability to punish the opponent’s weak side. If Liverpool can get City to lose the ball on the break or in risky possession, they can attack with little dribbling and a lot of verticality. That’s where they do the most damage. In addition, with a “fixing” striker in form and a pair of wingers/attacking midfielders who attack the space, they always have a goal-scoring opportunity up their sleeve even if they are not dominating the game.

Where I see the weak spot is on the right flank. Liverpool has had injuries/limitations there, and against City, that’s a focus: Guardiola tends to look for inside channels and overload the side where the opponent struggles with returns. If Liverpool doesn’t adjust its coverage well (especially when its full-back goes up), it can concede dangerous crosses and second chances.

In summary: if Liverpool keeps the game alive and can alternate pressure with transitions, I really like their competitive side. If they are forced to defend too long near their area, they suffer more and expose themselves to City closing them down.

Manchester City

City are coming into this game with that typical big-team feeling: sometimes they don’t shine, but they always compete. Their main strength continues to be control: they make you run, they force you to make decisions under pressure and, when they pin you back, they wear you down with their passing until they find the crack. And up front, with an elite number 9, any loose ball in the box becomes half a goal.

That said, I would put an asterisk on the defensive side of things. In recent weeks, City have had to manage injuries/rotations at the back, and that usually translates into something very specific: they concede more chances in the box than the ‘perfect’ City of other seasons. Not because they are a fragile team, but because when they don’t have all the right pieces in place, they suffer more when defending long transitions and runs back. And at Anfield, that’s poison.

I’m also interested in the emotional management of the game: if City scores first, they can take control (possession, pauses, long attacks). But if they concede early or the game becomes back and forth, it’s not uncommon for them to become more ‘human’ at the back. That’s why, when I bet on City in a game like this, I prefer markets that depend on their ability to generate (score, total goals) rather than relying on a clean sheet.

Referee: Craig Pawson

Craig Pawson tends to be a rather moderate referee in terms of cards for the Premier League: he is not one to break up the game with early yellows, and he often lets play continue and punishes more for accumulation or very clear actions. In a Liverpool-City match, that matters to me, because the context may invite high card “overs”, but with Pawson I don’t go crazy with aggressive lines.

If I want to bet on cards, I would do so in a more “situational” way: midfielders and full-backs cutting off transitions, or a yellow card for stopping a counter-attack in the second half when the game opens up. Overall, my reading is that he is not the ideal referee to expect a flurry of cards just because of the name of the match.

My predictions for Liverpool vs Manchester City

BeniThe conservative one

Over 2.5 goals. Odds 1.56

My reading here is quite straightforward: this match-up has too many ingredients to generate chances. Liverpool at Anfield tend to play at a high tempo and look for transitions, and City, even when they are not completely dominant, create volume through automatisms and quality. With the attacking profiles that both teams usually present, it is hard to imagine 90 minutes of closed play if an early goal appears. Furthermore, with defences that may be adjusted or have some absences, the probability of occasional errors increases… and those errors, in a match of this level, are punished with goals.

BetoThe bold one

Draw. Odds 3.60

I’m playing this pick with a low stake, but it fits my script very well. Liverpool compete for every metre at home and tend to have phases of emotional dominance; City, due to their style, also generate long phases of control. When you put those two ‘waves’ together, a 1-1 or 2-2 score is very realistic: City strikes during a period of control, Liverpool responds in transition or through pressure and drive. If the match is even going into the final stretch, a draw becomes more likely because neither side is completely out of sorts… and at the same time, both have enough quality to score without needing 10 chances.