Manchester City vs Liverpool (Premier League): odds and picks 09.11.2025

Premier League classic at the Etihad, Sunday 9 November. I come to this with a clear idea: the competitive context is one of high tempo and goals. City (2nd) and Liverpool (3rd) are both in the top spots and under maximum pressure just before the break.

City’s home advantage and ability to sustain long periods of possession will be important; on the other hand, Slot’s Liverpool are coming off a morale boost in Europe and are capable of lethal transitions.

Key factors I value: tactical flexibility (positional vs high pressure), the state of the block after the European week and a recent H2H with low scores but always with clear chances.

The most likely scenario is an exchange of blows with periods of alternating dominance and high lines.

Manchester City

City come into this game after beating Bournemouth and making moves in the Champions League, with the focus on staying at the top of the table. At home, Guardiola’s team tend to be at their best: quick circulation, width with wingers and second-line attacks.

This is a City side that gets a lot of players into the final third and rarely lets up in terms of shots on goal at the Etihad. In the immediate fixture list, the clash with Liverpool is the big test before the break, and the club sees it as a six-pointer.

Key factors I see: Foden’s reception between the lines, the outside duels (Doku/Savinho depending on the choice) and the management of the reds’ exits. When City accelerates after a loss, it closes in and accumulates corners/attacks.

Even with the recent H2H results somewhat adverse, the pattern of territorial dominance in Manchester remains: the visitors tend to have less long possession and live more off stealing and running.

For me, City’s margin lies in the first vertical pass (Rodri/centre-back) and the timing of the full-backs to pin the wide players without leaving themselves exposed.

Liverpool

Arne Slot’s Liverpool are boosted by their great European night against Real Madrid and have a clear identity: organised pressure, aggression to jump in and steal the ball, and an attacking front that punishes the space behind the first line very well.

Although their recent league form has been more inconsistent, their competitive performance on the big stage remains the same: compact and punchy. In the table, they are fighting directly for the top spot and know that scoring at the Etihad is worth double.

Key factors: Mac Allister as the metronome and shuttle behind the opposition’s midfielders, the threat of Salah/Díaz attacking the spaces, and the set-piece plays that Slot has worked on well. If Liverpool can turn their pressure into City turnovers near the box, they’ll create clear chances; if they’re forced to defend deep for long periods, they’ll depend on their effectiveness in transitions. Their challenge is managing long periods without the ball and keeping their emotions in check in a high-pressure game.

My predictions for Manchester City vs Liverpool

BeniThe conservative one

Both teams to score. Odds 1.65

My reading is that it will be an exchange of blows based on profiles and game plan: City will set up the game in the opponent’s half and Liverpool will respond with quick transitions. The recent H2H supports scenarios with clear chances for both sides.

BetoThe bold one

City wins + Both teams to score (Yes). Odds 3.20

I’m going for a combination that fits my board: City pushes harder and tends to impose volume at home, but Liverpool has enough edge to score. Probable scripts such as 2-1/3-1 support this line and raise the odds above 2.50.

Aggressive alternative if you prefer neutrality: Draw + Both teams to score (odds close to 4.00). Stake adjustment: 1.25u on the conservative bet and 0.75–1u on the combination bet.