Mexican Grand Prix: odds and picks 24.10.2025

The American tour heats up at the Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez, a key event with three rounds to go.

McLaren leads the drivers’ championship with Piastri ahead of Norris, while Verstappen pursues with a fast Red Bull on the straights. Mexico, due to its altitude and peculiarities, tends to shake things up.

The 2,200 m track punishes cooling and braking, with three DRS zones and the longest straight on the calendar. The forecast points to mild temperatures and a low probability of rain.

Keep an eye on the accumulated calendar and possible penalties for engine limits; any grid penalty here is costly due to traffic in the second sector.

Information: date, time and where to watch the GP

• Circuit: Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez (Mexico City)
• Race date and time (Spain): Sunday 26 October
• Qualifying (Spain): Saturday 25 October

Odds on the winner of the Mexican Grand Prix

Latest news on the podium favourites

Verstappen and the two McLarens (Norris and Piastri) are the ones to watch, both in terms of recent form and top speed and medium tyre management. Mercedes looks good on long runs, while Ferrari needs a clean lap on Saturday to avoid getting stuck in dirty air.

Max Verstappen

A less dominant season than in previous years, but with a very solid foundation on low-downforce circuits. Mexico usually suits him well due to its aerodynamic efficiency and the huge straight, where the RB excels in drag and traction.

If he secures pole position or the front row and manages his brake temperature well in traffic, he will have half the race in the bag.

In race pace, his strength is the undercut thanks to consistent stops and aggressive pit entries. Historically, he has been good at reading the first sector to avoid the melee of turns 1-2-3.

Lando Norris

Norris arrives with confidence and a McLaren that has improved in aerodynamic efficiency and slow traction, two critical points in Mexico. His unfinished business has been to convert pole positions into victories when the start is complicated.

Here, getting a clean start is golden because of the dust off the track; a solid start and a first stint with no graining leave him in an undercut/overcut position against Verstappen.

The car feels comfortable in the direction changes of the final sector and in heavy braking, which favours attempts in T1 with DRS. If the strategy opens up to two stops due to temperature, the McLaren pit wall usually reacts well with Norris.

Oscar Piastri

Piastri maintains remarkable consistency and usually performs flawlessly on chaotic Sundays. On this track, his strong point is rear tyre management and delicate use of the throttle, which is key when exiting the stadium and heading onto the straight.

If he qualifies in the top three, he can opt for a tyre offset to force Red Bull/Mercedes to cover him. He is usually very close to Norris in pure pace; the difference will be made by the start and track position.

With clean air, his degradation is even better than Lando’s, which opens the door to a single pit stop if the temperature drops in the evening.

Circuit conditions and weather forecast

4.3 km high-altitude track, three DRS zones (main straight, between T3-T4 and on the section towards the stadium) and a mix of low-medium speed corners.

The low air density reduces drag and downforce, so large wings are used to regain support. This complicates engine and brake cooling and makes lifting in traffic critical. Degradation is concentrated on the rear axle, with a tendency to graining in the middle if the track cools down.

The weekend is expected to be dry, with temperatures of 20–25 °C and moderate winds; rain cannot be completely ruled out, but the baseline scenario is dry.

In these conditions, the pit stop windows range from lap 18–24 for a two-stop strategy, or extending the hard tyres for a single stop if there is a safety car.

Comparison between leading teams

• McLaren has the most balanced package: good downforce in S2 and decent straight-line speed due to low intrinsic drag.
• Red Bull retains its advantage in aerodynamic efficiency and traction, which makes it very dangerous in clean air.
• Mercedes has taken a step forward in long runs and tends to shine when the track evolves a lot on Saturday; if they nail the tyre window, they can sneak onto the podium.

In terms of reliability, McLaren and Red Bull are showing fewer surprises; Mercedes has improved its pit stops, although it is still a tenth behind the best.

Strategically, Red Bull is aggressive with undercuts, McLaren is flexible with offsets, and Mercedes tends to overcut if the hard tyre works.

Latest results in the Mexican Grand Prix

In the modern era, Red Bull has dominated with several victories for Verstappen on a circuit that suits its low-drag philosophy.

There were surprises: Mercedes achieved victories with Hamilton and Rosberg, taking advantage of strategic decisions and tyre management. The most recent edition saw Ferrari capitalise on race circumstances to take the win, proving that Mexico rewards those who best read the pace and traffic.

In general, pole position does not guarantee victory due to the very long run-up to T1, where slipstreaming and DRS make a difference, and the car with the best traction and stable brakes usually imposes its will.

Summary of key factors for this GP

• Smooth asphalt and low air density: less drag, more difficulty braking and cooling.
• Tyres: rear management; prone to graining if the temperature drops.
• Set-up: large wings to recover downforce; priority given to braking stability.
• Mechanical reliability: critical cooling due to altitude.
• Start and T1: long slipstream, clean grid position.
• Strategy: 1–2 stops depending on degradation and possible safety cars.
• Safety Car/VSC: moderate probability due to incidents in T1 and stadium area.

Mexican Grand Prix: forecast