Mexico v Belgium (International friendly): odds and bets 31.03.2026

This friendly has far more substance than it appears. It takes place on Tuesday 31 March at Soldier Field in Chicago (in the early hours of 1 April in the UK), and comes at an interesting time for both sides.

Mexico are coming off a 0-0 draw against Portugal in the reopening of the Azteca, a serious, hard-fought match with few concessions. Belgium, for their part, arrive fresh from an attacking display against the United States, whom they thrashed 5-0 in Atlanta.

I don’t see this as a match to be swayed by the names alone. Mexico competes very well when the game calls for discipline, intensity and experience. Belgium, on the other hand, arrive with a much sharper attack and several creative players in top form.

The question I ask myself is not who has more talent – because in that respect Belgium comes out on top – but who sets the pace that suits them best.

Mexico

My impression of Mexico against Portugal was better than the 0-0 scoreline suggests. It wasn’t a brilliant match, but it was competitive. Aguirre saw his team hold their own against a top-tier side, withstand periods of pressure and stay in the game until the very end, including a late chance for Armando González to win it. In this sort of friendly, that matters far more to me than a flashy scoreline: Mexico showed discipline, stamina and a fairly clear idea of how to endure without falling apart.

Furthermore, playing in the United States now also provides a comfortable setting. It won’t be a home game in the strictest sense, but it will be a familiar environment with a very supportive crowd. Mexico’s great recent strength lies in the fact that they don’t need to dominate excessively to compete. They can defend well, close down central channels and turn the match into a more physical, less open affair. If they manage to prevent Belgium from finding quick openings out wide, the match could drag on longer than expected for the European side. That, for me, is Mexico’s main asset.

What gives me the most cause for concern is up front. Against Portugal, they lacked a bit more cutting edge in the final third, and now they face a side that, even whilst conceding some chances, punishes opponents far more when they win the ball and break forward. Mexico can certainly compete, but if the match becomes too open, that’s when I think they’ll start to struggle. Their best chance lies in a tense, controlled back-and-forth encounter, decided by the finer details rather than an all-out battle.

Belgium

Belgium’s match against the United States was a rather serious warning. They won 5-2, but beyond the result, they gave the impression of a team with plenty of bite up front. Debast scored from outside the box, Onana ventured into the box, De Ketelaere added one from the penalty spot and Lukebakio came on to score a brace. On top of that, Doku was a constant nightmare down the wing. When Belgium manage to attack with space and string together runs, it completely changes the complexion of the match.

I also think the context of their squad selection is important. Rudi Garcia has mixed veterans and young players on this tour, with names like De Bruyne, Onana, Tielemans, Doku, De Ketelaere, Openda and Lukebakio in a squad with plenty of attacking options. It was evident in the last friendly: Belgium didn’t rely on a single star to break down defences.

That said, I don’t see them as impenetrable at the back either. Even against the United States, they conceded two goals and showed signs of fragility when the opposition attacked quickly after a turnover. That’s where Mexico might find an opening, because they don’t need twenty chances to cause damage; all they need to do is make the game uncomfortable and capitalise on a lapse in concentration. Even so, to be honest, today I see Belgium a step ahead in terms of firepower, attacking variety and dynamism between the lines.