Morocco vs Tanzania (AFCON): odds and bets 04.01.2026

We are facing an AFCON round of 16 match (Sunday, 4 January 2026, at the Stade Prince Moulay Abdellah in Rabat; 4 p.m. in UKn) where context is key: elimination, nerves and a lot of pace management. Morocco is the host and has a duty to impose its authority, while Tanzania has already achieved its ‘big goal’ by reaching its first knockout stage and can play with less pressure.

The key, for me, is how Morocco starts the match. If they score early, the match will be perfect for them; if they get stuck, Tanzania knows how to disrupt the flow, slow down the pace and live off a couple of transitions or set pieces.

Keep an eye on this: Morocco is coming off a dominant win over Zambia without conceding any shots on goal and with a very high pass volume in the tournament; Tanzania, on the other hand, has survived with less possession and very resilient matches.

Morocco

I see Morocco as a ‘contender’ because of its structure, not just because of its names. It finished the group stage with seven points: it started by beating Comoros 2-0, then drew 1-1 with Mali (a VAR and penalty shootout match) and ended with a serious blow, beating Zambia 3-0 to win Group A. That last night was important because, finally, we saw a Morocco that dominates without conceding: they did not allow a single shot on goal and generated nine of their own.

Individually, there are two clear standouts: Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi. Brahim has scored in all three games of the tournament and both have three goals each, which in knockout stages is usually gold because they can decide close games with a single move. Add to that Ounahi, who already has two assists against Zambia, and the return of Achraf Hakimi, who once again provides a highway down the right when the opposition sits back.

My only reservation? In knockout games, if the match remains 0-0 for too long, the host’s anxiety begins to show. Even so, Morocco is producing a lot: it already has 20 shots on goal in the tournament and is the team that has attempted the most passes, a statistic that speaks to sustained control. If it finds an early advantage, it can make this a very long afternoon for Tanzania.

Tanzania

Tanzania is, for me, the typical team that can be uncomfortable in a knockout game, even if it is inferior in quality. It reached the round of 16 for the first time in its history after finishing the group with two points: it lost to Nigeria 2-1, drew with Uganda 1-1 (goal by Simon Msuva from a penalty) and earned its place with a 1-1 draw against Tunisia, where Feisal Salum scored the goal that pushed them into the next round.

Their competitive profile is very clear: a mid-to-low block team that does not need the ball to feel comfortable. In fact, against Tunisia, they had only 36% possession and completed just 206 passes, and yet it was enough. It is a team that, when organised, protects the central channel well and invites you to cross; if you get desperate, they catch you on the back or draw out wide fouls.

There are two details that I like to bet on with nuances. The first: they have scored in all three group matches, which is no small feat for an underdog. The second: their three goals came at the start of the second half (the first 15 minutes after the break), which tells me that this is a team that adjusts well and comes out with energy after the half-time talk. However, the historical match-up is very tough, because they usually struggle to create chances against Morocco and have not scored against them in recent games. If Morocco takes an early 1-0 lead, Tanzania will find it very difficult to change its game plan.

Referee: Boubou Traoré

CAF has appointed Malian Boubou Traoré to referee this Morocco-Tanzania match. In terms of discipline, his general tendency is to issue around 3.1 yellow cards per match, which is fairly average, without being one of those referees who routinely issues 6 or 7.

In this AFCON, for example, he refereed the Nigeria-Tunisia group stage match and that day he gave out 3 yellow cards in a tense match that used VAR. For context, he has refereed at least one match involving Morocco, although he does not have a long enough history to draw any clear patterns.

My predictions for Morocco vs Tanzania

BeniThe conservative one

Morocco/Morocco (Half-time/Full-time) – odds 1.53

Here I buy into a very specific idea: Morocco, as the host, needs to take control from the first minute and already showed against Zambia that when it really pushes, it can turn the match into a funnel, with a lot of offensive volume and an opponent without shots on goal. Tanzania competes, yes, but its plan is usually to resist and grow as the minutes pass; if Morocco opens up early, the half-time/full-time market becomes very logical. In addition, the head-to-head record also points in this direction: Morocco usually scores first and Tanzania has trouble doing sustained damage.

BetoThe bold one

Morocco -3.5 (Asian handicap) – odds 4.00

This is a bold bet, and I only suggest it if you are looking for high odds and believe in a scenario that ‘breaks early’. How does that happen? Morocco scores early, Tanzania is forced to come out – something that does not favour them – and that creates space for Brahim, El Kaabi and the full-backs to punish them. In tournaments, a 4-0 result is not the most likely outcome, but that is precisely why the odds are what they are. I see it as a high-value bet: either it falls short due to a controlled match (1-0, 2-0, 3-0), or if Morocco quickly goes 2-0 up, it could end up being a rout.