Napoli vs Bologna (Italian Super Cup): odds and picks 22.12.2025

The Super Cup (Final Four format) leaves us with a very close final in Riyadh: Napoli arrives with the authority of having beaten Milan 2-0, with David Neres and Rasmus Højlund as protagonists, and with Lukaku back in the squad after injury. Bologna, meanwhile, comes off the back of surviving Inter in a tense match: 1-1 and a penalty shootout, with Orsolini equalising from 11 metres and Immobile scoring the decisive goal in the shootout.

Key factors: neutral venue and a “one-match final” context, but with a very important nuance for betting: in the event of a draw after 90 minutes, there is no extra time; it goes straight to penalties. This usually compresses the score (and the goal lines) and, at the same time, gives Bologna more “life” if they manage to keep it even in the final stretch.

Napoli

I see this Napoli team as very recognisable: they have punch up front and, above all, competitive skill. It is no coincidence that they reached the final after a 2-0 win over Milan with a very clear plan: punish at the right moments and protect themselves without going crazy. Højlund made the difference (assist and goal), and Lukaku’s return gives them another dimension to pin down centre-backs and close out games when they have to suffer.

So far this season, the numbers are those of a championship-winning team: leaders with 41 points (13W-2D-1L) and only 11 goals conceded in 16 games, a statistic that for me is the real measure of their reliability when the game gets tough. In addition, they come into this game on the back of a mini-run of results that gives a good picture of their current form: they lost 1-0 to Atalanta, but before that they beat Marseille 3-1 and now they have kept a clean sheet against Milan.

The ‘but’? Bologna have already shown they can hurt them: the Rossoblù’s 2-0 win in November is there for all to see, and it’s not a minor warning. But in a final, with Napoli knowing how to manage the tempo, I have more confidence in their ability to compete in every phase of the game: a serious start, a patient middle period and a very experienced final 20 minutes.

Bologna

Bologna comes into this match with a narrative that I love for this type of final: a brave, well-drilled team with players who don’t hide when the ball is hot. Against Inter, they endured a very tough start (goal in the 2nd minute), didn’t break, and found the equaliser from the penalty spot with Orsolini. And when the match went to penalties, they had the composure to finish it off with Immobile’s decisive penalty.

In Serie A, they are competing at the top: 4th with 33 points and a fairly solid defensive record (14 goals conceded), which is just what you need if your plan is to take the final to a low score. In attack, they do not depend on a single option: Immobile has scored 8 goals and Orsolini 5, which gives them alternatives (area + second line + set pieces).

However, they are not perfect: their recent results show some cracks. They are coming off a 0-1 loss to Juventus and before that a 1-3 loss to Verona, although they were also able to beat Atalanta 2-1. For me, the tactical key is simple: if Bologna manages to slow the game down, with few transitions, and stretches it out to the 70th minute with the score still alive, they become a very uncomfortable opponent. And keep an eye on the Super Cup nuance: without extra time, ‘holding on’ is even more rewarding.

My predictions for Napoli vs Bologna

Before betting, I set the context: the final will be played on 22 December in Riyadh (Al-Awwal Park) at 20:00 CET, and if the score is tied at 90′, it goes straight to penalties. This greatly changes how I assess the goal and “lift the trophy” markets.

BeniThe conservative one

Under 3.5 goals. Odds 1.34

My reading here is clear: Napoli are top of the table and are conceding very few goals (11 in 16), Bologna are also competing from behind (14 conceded) and, being a final, no one wants to give away a two-legged tie. Furthermore, the fact that there is no extra time usually pushes both teams to protect themselves more if the match is tied in the final stages (no one wants to make a silly mistake just before the shootout).

BetoThe bold one

Bologna lifts the trophy. Odds 2.72

This is the ‘smart’ pick. Bologna already beat Napoli 2-0 in the league recently, and they have just shown that they can survive against a giant like Inter and win on penalties. If the match gets stuck, Bologna has options: set pieces, a penalty, a move by Orsolini… and then the lottery (or skill) of the shootout, where they already have experience.