Nathan Aspinall vs Ryan Joyce (World Grand Prix) Odds and Bets 02.10.2026

Nathan Aspinall and Ryan Joyce meet in the World Grand Prix quarter-finals after both produced convincing straight-sets victories in the last 16. Aspinall swept aside Luke Woodhouse 3-0 with the best average of Wednesday evening, while Joyce continued his impressive Leicester run by beating Danny Noppert by the same score.

I make Aspinall the stronger player overall, particularly when the scoring begins to flow, but Joyce is unusually dangerous in this format. His finishing has been outstanding throughout the tournament and he has already eliminated Michael van Gerwen. The battle between Aspinall’s scoring power and Joyce’s efficiency on the doubles should shape this quarter-final.

Nathan Aspinall vs Ryan Joyce date, time and event details

How Nathan Aspinall and Ryan Joyce are playing

Nathan Aspinall form

Aspinall’s tournament has improved considerably from one match to the next.

He was pushed extremely hard by Kevin Doets in round one, eventually surviving to win 2-1 despite averaging 89.20. He converted only seven of 21 finishing-double attempts and required a 115 checkout at a crucial stage to keep himself alive.

The performance against Luke Woodhouse was completely different.

Aspinall won 3-0, averaged 96.27 and fired in eight 180s. He won nine of the 12 legs played and even recovered from 2-0 down in the third set to complete the whitewash.

That 96 average is particularly impressive in a double-start event. When Aspinall finds the opening double quickly, his scoring is capable of overwhelming players before they get a realistic opportunity at a finish.

Ryan Joyce form

Joyce has taken a completely different route to the quarter-finals.

His scoring averages have been relatively modest, but his work on the doubles has been exceptional. He first eliminated six-time World Grand Prix champion Michael van Gerwen 2-1, producing checkouts of 92, 110 and 118 during the comeback.

He then followed that performance with a surprisingly comfortable 3-0 victory over Danny Noppert.

Joyce averaged only 86.04 against Noppert, virtually identical to his opponent’s 85.99, but the scoreboard told a very different story. He repeatedly punished missed opportunities and won all three sets 3-1.

His nickname, Relentless, feels particularly appropriate in this tournament. He does not need to dominate the scoring if he continues getting away cleanly and taking his finishing opportunities.

Key factors in my Aspinall vs Joyce prediction

Aspinall has a significant scoring advantage

This is the main reason I favour Aspinall.

Against Woodhouse he averaged 96.27 and hit eight maximums. Joyce, by contrast, averaged 86.04 against Noppert and 85.21 in his opening victory against Van Gerwen.

World Grand Prix averages naturally run lower because of the double-start rule, but a ten-point difference is still meaningful.

If both players begin their legs efficiently, Aspinall should reach the finishing zone first considerably more often.

Joyce has been outstanding on the doubles

This is the factor preventing me from treating the favourite as unbeatable.

Joyce hit eight of 12 finishing doubles against Van Gerwen and then converted nine of 13 against Noppert.

That gives him 17 successful finishing doubles from 25 attempts across his opening two matches — an extraordinary 68% conversion rate.

Aspinall has converted 16 of 44 across his two matches, approximately 36%.

Finishing statistics do not include the full picture of starting doubles, but there is still a huge difference in how efficiently the two players have been closing legs.

Aspinall’s 180 threat is considerably greater

Aspinall hit eight maximums against Woodhouse alone.

That matters because Joyce is unlikely to maintain a 68% finishing rate indefinitely. If his checkout percentage falls towards more normal levels, Aspinall’s heavier scoring becomes considerably more difficult to contain.

Joyce’s route to victory probably involves making this awkward, winning tight legs and preventing Aspinall from building momentum.

A high-tempo scoring contest clearly favours The Asp.

Joyce has already beaten Aspinall in this tournament

One piece of history I would not ignore is their 2024 World Grand Prix encounter.

Joyce beat Aspinall 3-2 in the second round, eventually progressing all the way to the semi-finals.

That meeting is much more relevant than many head-to-head records because it came under exactly the same double-in, double-out rules.

Aspinall actually averaged 91.16 compared with Joyce’s 87.20 that night and still lost. It is a useful reminder that conventional scoring superiority does not guarantee victory in this format.

Their more recent meetings favour Aspinall

The wider head-to-head record is more favourable to Aspinall, who has won six of their eight recorded meetings.

They have also played twice in 2026. Joyce won 6-3 at the Belgian Darts Championship in March, before Aspinall responded with a 6-4 victory at the Hungarian Darts Trophy in August.

That most recent result supports the favourite, although I attach more importance to the 2024 World Grand Prix clash when assessing how their styles interact with the double-start format.

Nathan Aspinall vs Ryan Joyce statistics

These numbers explain why I think the match is more interesting than the outright prices suggest.

Aspinall’s second-round scoring was on a completely different level to Joyce’s. A 96.27 average in this format combined with eight maximums is serious form.

Joyce, however, is compensating with remarkable efficiency. Converting 68% of his finishing doubles across two matches is the reason he has lost only four sets? No — more importantly, he has survived Van Gerwen and then beaten Noppert without dropping a set.

The key question is sustainability. I trust Aspinall’s scoring advantage more than I trust Joyce to continue finishing at close to 70%.

Nathan Aspinall vs Ryan Joyce head-to-head

Aspinall leads the wider series 6-2, including a 6-4 victory in their most recent meeting at the Hungarian Darts Trophy in August.

The most relevant result, however, came at this tournament in 2024.

Joyce defeated Aspinall 3-2, despite finishing the match with the lower average. Aspinall averaged 91.16 to Joyce’s 87.20, yet Joyce handled the decisive moments better and took the final set.

That history is one reason I am reluctant to back Aspinall 3-0. Joyce has already demonstrated that his style can be extremely effective against him under World Grand Prix rules.

Nathan Aspinall vs Ryan Joyce odds