Nigeria – Mozambique (AFCON): odds and bets 05.01.2026

AFCON 2025 round of 16 match on 5 January 2026 in Fez (Complexe Sportif de Fès), at 7 p.m. in UK. In knockout matches, the score is usually low… but there is a twist here: Nigeria comes in with 9/9 in the group stage and a very high offensive output (8 goals scored), while Mozambique is the typical ‘uncomfortable third’ that has already proven it can compete when the going gets tough.

For me, the key is who sets the pace. If Nigeria manages to take the lead early on, move their opponents around and generate volume, they are the clear favourites. But if Mozambique manages to break the game up into sections, cool things down with long possessions or tactical fouls and hold on to a 0-0/1-1 score, they can create a nervous scenario where a draw at 90 minutes starts to make sense, and in a knockout game, that’s already half a surprise.

Nigeria

I see Nigeria as a ‘tournament team’: results, punch and rotation with performance.

They have gone through the group stage with a clean sweep of victories and eight goals scored, but beware: they have also conceded four, which means they are not living off 1-0 wins, but rather imposing themselves through quality and moments. That’s usually a double-edged sword in the round of 16: when you score first, you control the game; if you don’t, you sometimes get frustrated because you’re used to the blow coming.

In terms of names, it makes sense to me that the danger is very evenly distributed: Ademola Lookman and Raphael Onyedika have been among the most productive in terms of goals, and around them are players who win duels and sustain the game when the opponent closes down.

In addition, there is an important point to note: Nigeria is concerned about the physical condition of Ryan Alebiosu and Cyriel Dessers, and with such a tight schedule, any doubts on the wing or in the attacking rotation affect the plan, especially if the game gets bogged down.

My tactical reading is simple: Nigeria is dangerous when it can attack continuously and recover quickly after losing possession. If Mozambique forces it to slow attacks and crosses without much advantage, it loses some of its edge. Even so, based on hierarchy and how it has been competing, it remains the logical side of the match.

Mozambique

Mozambique arrives without the pressure of being the favourite, and in the AFCON, that is worth its weight in gold.

The group stage has been a real rollercoaster ride: they lost 1-0 to Ivory Coast in a game of resistance and survival, and then pulled off a huge upset by beating Gabon 3-2, with goals from Bangal, Catamo (p) and Calila. They then lost 2-1 to Cameroon, but they really competed: they took the lead through Geny Catamo, conceded the equaliser through an own goal by Nené and fell behind after the break.

This run of form explains their profile well: a team that feels comfortable in a medium-low block, that does not need to dominate to cause damage and that thrives on moments, whether in transitions, set pieces or second plays.

At the player level, Catamo is the name that stands out the most because of his threat and because he shows up on big days; in addition, Mozambique brings veterans and competitive experience, which helps when the tie gets messy.

What I like to look for in terms of nuances is that Mozambique has already shown that it can win a ‘crazy’ game (3-2) and can also hold on in a game of endurance (1-0). Their problem, of course, is their ceiling: if Nigeria scores early, forcing them to take the initiative is another matter entirely. But if they can withstand the initial onslaught, they can get into the game and make it uncomfortable until the end.

My predictions for Nigeria vs Mozambique

BeniThe conservative one

Nigeria wins (90′) – odds 1.36

I won’t complicate things here: Nigeria comes into this match with a perfect record and an offensive record that, even conceding at the back, allows them to win without needing to be perfect. In a knockout match, for me the question is clear: who has more ways to win? And Nigeria has several: individual quality, distributed firepower and the ability to take the game to the opponent’s half. Furthermore, the odds already reflect that they are the clear favourites.

BetoThe bold one

Draw (90′) – odds 4.50

This is a prediction if you believe in a knockout match where the underdog survives and the favourite gets stuck. Mozambique comes off the back of competing with Ivory Coast and putting Cameroon in trouble by taking the lead; if they can prevent Nigeria from scoring early, the match could enter that nervous phase where a 1-1 (or even 0-0) score at 90 minutes is perfectly plausible. What’s more, Nigeria has not been a clean sheet team in the tournament, so the ‘scare’ of a draw is not crazy if Mozambique finds an isolated opportunity and you are looking for high odds.