Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets (NBA): odds and bets 07.02.2026

This is a crucial game for both teams, with Oklahoma leading the Western Conference and Houston trying to prove that they are better than their recent results suggest. The game will be played on Saturday, 7 February at the Paycom Center, a venue where the Thunder usually dictate the pace and, above all, punish every mistake made by their opponents.

The key here is the script: if the game goes to controlled possessions and Houston takes care of the ball, the Rockets can compete until the end. If the Thunder comes out aggressive on the front line, with steals and transitions, then the +/- shoots up quickly. Also, keep an eye on the context of the schedule: Oklahoma is coming off a recent stretch of managing its workload, while Houston arrives with a sense of urgency after consecutive stumbles. In my experience, that “I want to but I can’t” feeling is very noticeable in close finishes.

Oklahoma City Thunder latest

Oklahoma comes in with the best record in the West and, even with recent rotation changes, maintains a very clear identity: suffocating defence and easy points off turnovers. The practical news is that several absences from their last game have already been cleared up, so the Thunder should be much closer to their “starting” version for this matchup.

Houston Rockets latest

Houston arrives as a top team in the West, but in somewhat unstable form: recent games have seen sluggish offence and a certain disconnect on defence. Even so, their competitive ceiling is there, especially if they manage to impose themselves physically, dominate the rebound and avoid getting caught up in transition baskets. For me, their barometer is their energy level: when they push hard, they are really uncomfortable to play against.

Summary of the key factors in this match

• Turnovers and transition: Oklahoma punishes opponents like few others when they give the ball away.
• Pace of the game: Houston benefits from a slower, more methodical game; the Thunder benefits from running.
• Rebounding: if the Rockets win the offensive rebound, they buy themselves extra life and reduce the impact of the “game-killing” run.
• Perimeter defence: the Thunder tend to force awkward shots; Houston needs good shots, not quick shots.
• Close finish: Oklahoma is more reliable in execution; Houston needs to take the lead or have the game well under control.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Houston Rockets: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Oklahoma City Thunder to win. Odds 1.55

If I’m looking for a “textbook” line, I’ll go with a straight Thunder win. At home, with their defence generating points in transition, it seems the most likely scenario to me, especially against a Houston team that has had some recent doubts. It’s not the sexiest odds, but it fits well for a combination bet or a bankroll management bet: if Oklahoma sets the tone from the first quarter, the game usually goes their way.

BetoThe bold one

Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5 and Under 213.5 points (combined). Odds 3.40

Here I’m going with a specific scenario: Oklahoma wins by a margin and the game doesn’t get out of hand in terms of scoring. If the Thunder manages to disrupt Houston’s playmaking and reduce the exchange of baskets, the “under” makes sense, and the -4.5 accompanies it if one of those typical runs after turnovers appears. It’s risky because it depends on the pace, but at high odds, it’s the kind of bet I’ll take when I have confidence in the home team’s defence.