Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks (NBA): odds and bets 13.02.2026

A high-profile clash in Oklahoma City, and one with a very tricky context: the eve of the break and with medical reports that could completely change the script. In these types of games, I look less at the name and more at the pace that interests each team: OKC tends to be comfortable when they press back and run after steals; Milwaukee, if they are struggling, need longer possessions and to protect the ball so as not to give away points.

The key is the actual availability of their key players and how the second units hold up. If the game opens up early, the Thunder has more resources to string together runs; if it gets stuck and becomes physical, the handicap gains value. My feeling is that, with the total set relatively low, the market is anticipating a somewhat slower game than usual.

Latest news from Oklahoma City Thunder

In OKC, the focus is on the injury report: there are some important absences and some last-minute doubts that will affect both the pace and the creation of advantages. If the Thunder can’t run and have to play more statically, their offensive ceiling drops… but their defence usually keeps them in the game even on grey nights.

Latest news on the Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee arrives with significant absences and the plan, away from home, seems clear: minimise losses, don’t concede transitions and live off efficiency rather than volume. If key players are also missing, the margin is reduced and any defensive disconnect is paid for dearly. For me, their option is to compete for rebounds and disrupt the rhythm.

Summary of key factors in this match

• Injury report: if both sides are missing key players, the value of unders and high handicaps increases.
• Pace: OKC wants to run; Milwaukee needs control and few turnovers.
• Handicap: double-digit line, typical of a clear favourite with a possible “streaky” game.
• Total: relatively low bar, sign of a more defensive/thick script.
• Start of the match: the first quarter will be key to see if there is energy and accuracy or if it will be a mid-court battle.

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Milwaukee Bucks: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Under 224.5 points (game total). Odds 1.45.

With the reference total hovering around the low end of NBA standards, I prefer to protect myself and buy some “air” with a slightly higher line. If the game is played with short rotations or key players out, the pace tends to slow down and the importance of defence increases. This seems like a prudent pick to me.

BetoThe bold one

Milwaukee Bucks +10.5 and under 219.5 points (combined). Odds 3.40.

This is a very specific scenario: the Bucks competing from a position of control, avoiding runs and taking advantage of a less explosive OKC if there are absences. The +10.5 covers a close finish without the need for a win, and the under accompanies the idea of a tight game. It’s risky, but it’s consistent with the context of the match.