PAOK vs Real Betis (Europa League): odds and picks 22.01.2026

This match at Toumba looks like a “trap”. PAOK is a team that transforms itself at home: it presses hard, plays with a different energy and turns the match into a battle of duels and second plays. Betis, for their part, are well positioned in this Europa League and tend to compete with their heads, but they don’t always dominate: they often prefer to control, slow down the pace and get the result through maturity.

The context helps to understand the script: Betis is at the top of the league table and PAOK is in the middle, so both have different incentives. PAOK needs to score to avoid complications, and Betis wants to secure the top spot. When betting, I look at two things: how Betis holds up with the ball under pressure in a stadium like this, and whether PAOK manages to turn the match into a back-and-forth affair with transitions and contact.

PAOK

I rate PAOK very highly in Thessaloniki. It’s a team that, when playing at Toumba, rarely feels inferior: it pushes forward with the stadium, increases its aggression and gains a lot of ground through intensity. That’s gold for ‘no loss’ markets or for thinking about a game that will be uncomfortable for the visitors. In this Europa League, they have shown their ability to score and compete in open games: they are not a team that sits back, but one that looks to hurt their opponents when they find their rhythm.

The key to PAOK, for me, lies in their ability to attack down the wings and get players into the box. If they manage to pin Betis back, they will send in crosses, second balls and force them to defend constantly. One name stands out above the rest in terms of betting: Andrija Živković. He is the player who appears most often in the final move, both for the final pass and the shot. When PAOK has periods of dominance, he is almost always involved.

His weakness comes when he is forced to defend deep: if Betis manage to break out with quick passes and attack behind the defence, PAOK suffer because their pressing leaves spaces. Even so, at home they usually make up for it with energy and the feeling that they always have one more gear to equalise or turn the game around.

Real Betis

Betis arrive as favourites “on paper”, and deservedly so: they have been a very serious team in Europe, especially in defence. That speaks of a Betis side that competes with its head, without needing to get carried away. However, away from home, it seems to me that they are more about managing than overwhelming: they are a team that often accepts long, slow-paced games and does not hesitate to settle for a draw if the context calls for it.

There is an important nuance here: they arrive with injuries and absences in attack that limit their options and punch. If Pellegrini does not have all his pieces, Betis can control the game, yes, but they find it harder to convert that control into clear chances. Even so, they have players with the talent to make a decisive move: Lo Celso, for example, is one of those players who can change a game with a pass or a well-executed set piece, and that is where Betis can hurt their opponents even if they are not dominating.

Their strength is their organisation: they don’t tend to lose their structure even under pressure. Their weakness, in this type of scenario, is that if PAOK presses and Betis fails to ‘cool things down’ with long periods of possession, they may end up defending too long near their area.

Referee: Simone Sozza

The referee is Simone Sozza, and for me that pushes slightly towards a game with cards. He is a referee who tends to give yellow cards quite easily when the game becomes physical, and this PAOK-Betis game has all the ingredients for that: a heated stadium, constant duels and transitions where tactical fouls occur.

In terms of betting, I think it’s a match where the number of cards could increase, especially in the second half: if the score is tight, the stress levels rise and the rate of fouls tends to increase. PAOK, due to their style, tend to force contact, and Betis, if forced to run backwards, may also resort to fouls.

My predictions for PAOK vs Real Betis

BeniThe conservative one

Andrija Živković 0.5 shots on goal. Odds 1.50.

Here I am going with what makes the most sense to me in terms of repeatability. Živković is the PAOK player who appears most often in decisive action, and in a match where I expect moments of local pressure, I think it is very likely that he will get at least one shot on target. In addition, Betis often accept periods without the ball when they are away, and that translates into a volume of PAOK attacks down the wings, which is where Živković thrives. It is a logical bet even if the match ends 0-0 or 1-1.

BetoThe bold one

Draw. Odds 3.60

Here I’m going for the X because of the overall context: PAOK are very strong at home, Betis tend to play long games away from home and, on top of that, they are missing some attacking players, which takes away their punch to ‘break’ the game. For me, it’s a typical close game: no one wants to lose, PAOK presses and Betis resists and chooses its moments. If I had to guess a typical score, 1-1 would make a lot of sense to me.