Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors (NBA): odds and bets 06.02.2026

This Suns–Warriors game on 6 February (early morning in UK) is highly anticipated due to the context: Phoenix is 31-20 and Golden State 27-24, both in the thick of the fight for playoff positions in the West. In addition, the season series is still alive: the Warriors lead 2-1 in head-to-head matchups this season, so this fourth duel feels like a ‘mental tiebreaker’.

For me, the key is not only who scores more, but who survives the injuries better. Right now, there are some big names out: Booker (OUT) for Phoenix and Curry (GTD) for the Warriors, in addition to other players out for Golden State. When key players are missing, it shows in the pace, the shot selection and the final stretch.

Phoenix Suns

Phoenix is coming in with a good run of results: in their last five games, they have four wins (including Portland, 130-125) and only one tough loss to the Clippers (117-93). That tells me that even with unusual rotations, they are finding ways to compete and win.

In terms of profile, the Suns are averaging 113.8 points per game and conceding 111.6, a fairly healthy balance for sustaining home games. They are not the most “electric” team in the world, but they tend to be consistent if they control the rebound and do not give away turnovers. Collectively, what interests me most about this matchup is that Phoenix doesn’t need a perfect game to reach a close finish: if they defend two or three possessions in a row and connect on a couple of three-pointers, they can change the dynamic in a minute.

The obvious asterisk is the absence of Devin Booker (OUT, ankle) and Jalen Green (OUT, hip). That completely changes how they generate points: more minutes for secondary players, more shots “created” by the system and less automatic scoring on fast breaks. Even so, in the last game they already showed that they can survive with other names pulling their weight.

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors arrive with a 27-24 record and a mini-alarm going off: they are coming off a 113-94 home loss to Philadelphia, with a bad feeling of energy and, above all, a game broken down by basic details (turnovers and rebounding). When Golden State loses control of that, they suffer greatly.

In team numbers, they score 116.7 and concede 114.0, and they stand out for their defensive activity (around 10 steals per game). They are the typical team that, if they see blood, will quickly run up the score with steals and transitions. But they are also a team that relies heavily on their main playmaker to organise their static attack.

And here comes the key point for betting: the injury report. ESPN lists Stephen Curry as GTD (knee), Kuminga OUT, Jimmy Butler III out for the season, and Seth Curry OUT. With that scenario, either Curry plays and is fine… or the attack becomes too “streaky,” with many minutes of forced shooting. Add to that the fact that Phoenix tends to punish opponents at home when they get stuck, and the line for the game changes a lot depending on Curry’s actual status.

My predictions for the Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors

BeniThe conservative one

Phoenix Suns +6.5 (alternative handicap)

 I consider this conservative because it covers the “Phoenix competes” scenario even if the game is decided at the end. With the Warriors full of physical doubts (Curry injured) and several players out, it is unlikely to be a blowout unless Phoenix crashes offensively without Booker. And Phoenix comes in with positive momentum in the last five games, which also leads me to believe it will be a close finish.

BetoThe bold one

Phoenix Suns win by 6-10 points (margin of victory)

 Here I’m looking for high odds without flipping a coin. My take: if Curry isn’t 100% or doesn’t play, Golden State has long stretches of sluggish offence; and Phoenix, at home, usually knows how to “close out” games with good defence + long possessions. The 6-10 margin is the typical range when the home favourite controls the clutch without blowing out the score from the first minute.