Poland vs Netherlands (2026 World Cup Qualifier): odds and picks 14.11.2025

2026 World Cup qualifier at PGE Narodowy (Warsaw), Friday 14 November.

I have a clear takeaway: the Netherlands are on a roll and well on their way to qualifying, while Poland need to score points to avoid complications. The 1-1 draw between the two sides in September serves as a warning: the Poles compete at home and strike when they can run.

Even so, in terms of form, depth and punch, the favourites are orange.

Poland

I expect a midfield block and quick attacks with Zielinski connecting with the forwards and high full-backs looking for crosses. The first leg (1-1) showed Poland capable of withstanding the Dutch pressure after the break and doing damage from second plays.

In the table, they are behind the Netherlands and have little margin for error, which usually leads to a game of maximum concentration and less risk on the break.

Keep an eye on the physical aspect: during the October break, there were scares with Lewandowski (muscle injury) and, although his availability has become clearer, it is reasonable to think that his minutes will be managed or, at the very least, that he will not be pushed to the limit.

At the same time, the manager has moved pieces around with calls for fresh profiles to balance the squad. In defence, the key will be to protect the area from crosses to Malen/Gakpo and cut off Depay’s runs inside; if Poland avoids conceding early, the match will grow in favour of their script of transitions and set pieces.

Netherlands

Koeman’s team arrives with the wind in its sails: top of the group and one step away from sealing their ticket. The 4-0 win over Finland was a statement of intent: effective high pressure, width with Malen/Gakpo, Van Dijk’s leadership and a Depay who has regained his edge and is racking up goals for the national team.

In addition, the coach has refreshed the squad with the return of de Ligt and some new additions such as Luciano Valente, without changing the competitive backbone.

Away from home, they are not giving up their leading role: they want the ball, to steal it high up the pitch and force mistakes in the opponent’s first and second lines. The challenge is not to lose their shape if Poland accelerates after a steal; for that, the role of Reijnders/De Jong as stabilisers is key.

If the Netherlands impose their rhythm and win duels in the opposition’s half, the match will swing in their favour.

Predictions for Poland vs Netherlands

BeniThe conservative one

Netherlands to win. Odds 1.62

My reading is that the Oranje’s current superiority in structure and offensive efficiency, coupled with their need to secure qualification, tips the 1X2. The odds are on the conservative side and reflect a match where the Dutch plan (pressure + quick circulation) should prevail, even with periods of Polish resistance.

BetoThe bold one

Netherlands wins + Under 3.5 goals. Odds 3.10

This fits with a scenario of away control but a low score: Poland, at home, tends to close down lanes and make it a tight game; the Oranje, for their part, are maturing well and do not need a crazy game to get the three points. Scores such as 0-1/1-2/0-2 keep the combined score above 2.5. As an aggressive alternative, the Netherlands winning by 1 goal is also around 3.00 and fits with a tense match.