Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid (La Liga): odds and picks 09.11.2025

A Madrid derby on Matchday 12 at Vallecas, Sunday, 9th November. I have a clear interpretation: Real Madrid are the favourites, but it will be a gritty match due to the Vallecas setting.

Rayo are in mid-table, while Madrid are at the top, fighting for the lead.

Key factors I value are recent form and availability. The Head-to-Head record is highly favourable to Madrid, although Rayo compete better at home. In the injury room, Rayo have issues in defence and midfield; Madrid have absentees in defence and Tchouaméni is out, but there is positive news regarding Valverde. All of this points towards a duel of visiting initiative and local resistance.

Rayo Vallecano

At Vallecas, they usually raise the intensity and close down the lines, but they struggle to sustain consistent attacking production against elite teams.

The immediate historical record shows that they can compete against Madrid here, although the overall balance still favours the Merengues (Real Madrid). I anticipate a mid-to-low block approach, with marking behind the full-backs and quick breakaways looking for fouls and set pieces.

Fitness and suspensions are determining factors: Unai López (muscle strain), Luiz Felipe (hamstring), Abdul Mumin (ACL), and some recent bans for full-backs; these are pieces that detract from defensive consistency.

If Rayo do not concede early, the match improves for them; if they fall behind, they are exposed on the break.

Real Madrid

They arrive with the momentum of league leaders and a very favourable H2H record against Rayo. In this context, I expect a Madrid side dominant in possession, with Mbappé/Vinícius attacking the channels and playing at a high tempo after losing possession.

Regarding absentees: Tchouaméni is still out; doubts have been cleared with Valverde available; the back line is carrying knocks (Rüdiger/Alaba), which is a point to watch regarding crosses from the flanks.

Recent precedents reinforce the script: recent ‘white’ victories against Rayo with tight scorelines (2-1), where Madrid strike first and manage their lead.

In a passionate stadium environment, superior quality in both boxes usually tips the scales.

My Predictions for Rayo Vallecano vs Real Madrid

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid to Win. Odds 1.55

The difference in quality and the H2H clearly tilt the odds. With Rayo struggling at the back and a Madrid side that converts dominance into goals, the away victory falls within the medium odds range and covers most scenarios (0-1/1-2).

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid to Win + Under 3.5 Goals. Odds 3.10

This mix suits me because Rayo, at home, tend to slow the pace and force a long game, while Madrid are accustomed to closing out games here. Scorelines like 0-1/1-2 increase the odds above 2.5 without requiring a goal-fest. The totals lines and the away favouritism provide a combined bet that is in that range in the main markets.

Alternative for more aggressive bettors: Real Madrid to win by 1 goal (winning margin), which usually has odds of around 3.00.