Real Madrid vs Baskonia (Euroleague): odds and picks 11.12.2025

A big European match at the Movistar Arena (Madrid) kicks off on Thursday, 11 December. It’s a highly emotional game and the context is favourable for the Whites, who are dominant at home and have a clear game plan: slow down the pace, close down their hoop and punish every turnover. Baskonia needs to speed up and find streaks from the perimeter to stay in the game.

The schedule is tight, but the travel is minimal for Madrid and the competitive sequence works in their favour. The home court factor weighs heavily here and, numerically, the Whites are performing better in rebounding differential and defensive rating at home. If the game stays in the middle of the court and the visitors’ outside shooting doesn’t break the mould, the game will go according to the home team’s script.

Real Madrid latest

Solid performances in the Euroleague and high reliability at home. The plan is to rely on positional defence, minimise turnovers (around 11-12) and make smart plays for second options. With the crowd behind them, they often open with 6-0/8-2 runs that set the tone for the fourth quarter and allow them to manage their lead.

Latest news on Baskonia

A team with very dangerous offensive peaks, but more vulnerable when they don’t dominate the rebound and rely too much on the three-pointer. Away from home, they struggle if they don’t find their rhythm early on. The key will be to protect their basket, select better on the outside shot and not give away transitions; if the game becomes physical, they lose their edge.

Summary of key factors in this match

• Court: Movistar Arena usually favours +3/+4 in close games.
• Pace: Madrid is better suited to half-court play; Baskonia needs short possessions.
• Rebounds: home advantage; can add 8-10 points on second chances.
• Turnovers: white threshold ~11-12; below that, they control the script.
• Visiting three-pointers: if they fall below 34%, they lose a large part of their production.
• Schedule: less travel fatigue for Madrid, better recent momentum.

Real Madrid vs Baskonia: our prediction

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid -3.5 Asian handicap. Odds 1.52

With home court advantage and a better rebounding differential, I see Madrid imposing their game plan and opening up a manageable margin. This spread covers us for a close finish without requiring a blowout; it fits in the 1.30-1.60 range and reflects the most likely scenario based on form and matchup.

BetoThe bold one

Real Madrid -10.5 handicap (wins by 11+). Odds 3.40

If Baskonia cannot maintain its outside shooting and loses the rebounding battle, the game could be over after the break. Madrid punishes every lapse in concentration with long runs; in that scenario, the margin shoots up to two or three possessions and the odds exceed 3.00 with value.