Real Madrid vs Celta (La Liga): odds and picks 07.12.2025

A match with very distinct styles at the Bernabéu: a dominant Madrid in the opponent’s half, with a lot of attacks down the wings and a strong second line, against a Celta side that tends to feel comfortable sitting deep, looking to steal the ball and break quickly with Aspas/Larsen. For me, Madrid will dictate the pace with long periods of possession and pressure after losing the ball.

Key factors: Celta’s defence of the area from crosses and second balls (critical point) and Madrid’s ability to activate their inside forwards at the edge of the box. If Celta can overcome the initial pressure and connect with their forwards, they can find space behind the Whites’ full-backs. Set pieces and transitions after winning the ball back will be decisive; I expect a clash with periods of home dominance and the visitors looking to be clinical.

Real Madrid

They arrive with confidence and clear automatisms: width with the wingers/full-backs, Vinícius’ diagonal runs and Bellingham/Valverde’s runs off the ball that punish defenders. I particularly like their pressing after losing possession, which closes down the opposition and forces them to split the ball; this leads to many second plays and shots from the half-moon. When Madrid open the scoring, their ability to ‘cycle’ attacks and keep the opposition in their area greatly reduces the risk of a comeback.

Relative weakness: sometimes they concede a transition if their double pivot is split. Celta can bite there, but for that to happen, Madrid would have to lose precision in their passing. At home, they also create many scoring opportunities through tense crosses to the far post and second-line attacks. With Rodrygo/Vinícius attacking in open play and full-backs overlapping, I see Madrid generating 2-3 clear chances per half. Defensively, with Rüdiger dominating aerial duels and Carvajal aggressive in the tackle, they tend to limit their own area well, except for occasional disconnections.

Celta Vigo

A brave team in their approach, more reactive in big games. When they retreat, they protect the inside channels well, and their quick breakout is dangerous if Aspas finds the first receiver facing goal. Larsen offers useful support to win second balls and pin down centre-backs; his lay-offs lead to the wingers making runs behind the defence. If Celta wants to compete at the Bernabéu, it needs maximum precision in the first two actions after winning the ball: controlled touch and a vertical pass to overcome Madrid’s wave of pressure.

Their area for improvement remains defending the flanks of the box and controlling rebounds. In games where they are under siege, they tend to accumulate half-defended crosses that generate second chances. In their favour: offensive set pieces, where Unai Núñez and Larsen add height, and Aspas’ intelligence in forcing fouls near the box. Against: when they are behind on the scoreboard, they struggle to hold onto the ball and get into the area with any consistency; they depend on their reactive plan working almost perfectly.

My predictions for Real Madrid vs Celta

BeniThe conservative one

Real Madrid to win & Over 1.5 goals. Odds 1.40

I like it because it aligns with the script and the price: Madrid at home produces enough volume to score two goals in the overall match and, if they are ahead, they continue to look for the second. Celta can compete, but they struggle defending crosses and second plays; even if they score, the prediction remains 2-1. It is a simple selection, backed by statistics on the Whites’ scoring trend and fits in with low risk management.

BetoThe bold one

Vinícius Jr. scores & Real Madrid wins. Odds 3.00

Here I am looking for value in the combination of result + goalscorer. Celta’s defensive plan tends to free up the Real Madrid left winger in one-on-one situations; with full-backs overlapping and Bellingham drawing defenders inside, Vinícius finds shooting lanes from the edge of the box or runs to the far post. If Madrid takes the lead, the scenario favours them even more in terms of space. Scores I see within the range of this pick: 2-0 / 3-1. Moderate stake: the variance in the goalscorer market is high, but the tactical fit is very good.