San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder (NBA): odds and bets 05.02.2026

This Spurs–Thunder match on 5 February is one of those games that tells you the truth about where each team stands. Oklahoma is leading the West with a 39-11 record, and San Antonio is also doing very well with 33-16, so we’re not talking about a ‘trap game’, but rather a clash between two serious teams.

For me, the two keys to the game are pace and turnovers. OKC is lethal when it steals and runs, and can break the game open in two minutes. The Spurs, on the other hand, need to control the tempo, attack calmly and be strong in protecting the rim. In addition, the state of the rotations (with Sochan out and Castle injured) could greatly affect San Antonio’s perimeter defence.

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are coming off a strong season: 33-16 and, above all, consistent home performance (16-7). They are not a team of “talent alone”: you can see the hard work, the automatisms and a clear idea of how to compete. In overall numbers, they are around 116.9 points scored for 111.9 conceded, a balanced profile that usually holds up well in big games.

The barometer of the game is Wembanyama. He is putting up all-star numbers (24.1 points, 11.0 rebounds and around 2.7 blocks) and has also just been named Western Conference Defensive Player of the Month for January, which says a lot about his real impact, not just his highlights. When he dominates the rim, the Spurs gain possessions: the opponent hesitates to drive in, forces awkward shots, and San Antonio can run after rebounds or blocks.

Now, keep the context in mind: they’ve been through it all against OKC. In December, they beat them twice (117-102 and 130-110), but in their last meeting, the Thunder ran roughshod over them (119-98). That defeat is a warning: if San Antonio gets stuck on the three-pointer, loses the ball or fails to get help in time, OKC will punish them mercilessly. With Sochan out and Castle doubtful, I am particularly concerned about the defence of the outside players and the energy of the second units.

Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC is in real contender mode: 39-11 and a tremendous point differential (approx. 120.5 for and 107.7 against). That’s a sign of a team that not only wins, but wins with authority and repeats the pattern night after night. The feeling is that they have the resources for any scenario: fast-paced games, physical games, close finishes… and that’s worth its weight in gold in the regular season.

Their plan is simple and very well executed: pressure up front, quick hands, provoking mistakes and converting turnovers into easy points. If the game is played with a lot of possessions, they tend to be more comfortable than almost anyone else. And although Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the media focus, what really makes them dangerous is their depth and consistency: there is always someone contributing on both sides of the court.

There is one important nuance to this matchup: the injury report has ruled out Jalen Williams (hamstrings), which reduces some of the secondary creation and outside threat. Even so, their structure remains very strong, and they also arrive with the momentum of a “serious” team, the kind that doesn’t disconnect when they find a good streak in the game.

My predictions for the San Antonio Spurs vs Oklahoma City Thunder

BeniThe conservative one

Oklahoma City Thunder wins (Moneyline) — odds 1.55

OKC is more consistent, with better overall numbers and, above all, a style that punishes the Spurs where they can suffer: turnovers, fast pace and easy points. If San Antonio does not dominate the game from the first minute, the Thunder has too many ways to pull away on the scoreboard. And although home court advantage helps, Castle’s uncertainty and Sochan’s absence make me see San Antonio as more limited in their ability to slow down OKC’s perimeter.

BetoThe bold one

Thunder wins and both teams score 110+ — odds 2.62

I like this market because it combines logic with odds. My reading is that San Antonio usually scores points at home, and Wembanyama alone forces adjustments and creates easy shots. At the same time, OKC usually reaches its numbers because its attack is very fluid and thrives on quick runs. If the game doesn’t turn into a stalemate (and it usually doesn’t with OKC), the scenario of both teams scoring over 110 is very realistic. And that’s where I’m going with the Thunder winning the game on execution and depth in the final stretch.