Senegal vs Morocco (AFCON): odds and bets 18.01.2026

The AFCON final (Sunday, 18 January 2026, in Rabat) promises to be a tense, closely fought match. These are two very ‘mature’ teams: Morocco comes in with the momentum of the host nation and a defensive structure that concedes very little, while Senegal brings the competitive edge of champions (2021) who know how to win even when the game is stuck in a rut.

For me, the keys are twofold: 1) who wins the midfield (because both teams want to attack from an organised position) and 2) the plan B if there is extra time. Also keep an eye on the absences: Senegal will be without Koulibaly and Habib Diarra for the final, which will affect the hierarchy at the back and the legs in midfield.

Senegal

Senegal has had a tournament that has gone from strength to strength in terms of competitive control. In the group stage, they were more aggressive: 3-0 against Botswana, 1-1 with DR Congo and 3-0 against Benin (7 goals scored in 3 games). In the knockout stages, however, they have shown their teeth: 3-1 against Sudan, then two nail-biting games with 1-0 against Mali and 1-0 against Egypt to reach the final.

What I like most about this Senegal team is that, when they take the lead, they know how to slow down the pace and protect themselves with experienced players (Idrissa Gueye, Pape Gueye), and they also have a ‘big game’ goalkeeper in Édouard Mendy. The bad news is serious: Koulibaly (captain) and Habib Diarra are suspended for the final, so the starting eleven loses command and a very useful profile for going forward and coming back. The last starting eleven featured Mendy; Diatta–Koulibaly–Niakhaté–Diouf; Diarra–Gueye–Gueye; Ndiaye–Jackson–Mané, and now they have to find replacements for two key players.

Morocco

Morocco arrives with the formula that usually wins tournaments: a clean sheet and efficiency. In the group stage: 2-0 against Comoros, 1-1 with Mali and 3-0 against Zambia. In the knockout stage: 1-0 against Tanzania, 2-0 against Cameroon and 0-0 with Nigeria (winning on penalties). In other words: very few open games, a lot of discipline, and at home that counts for a lot.

Up front, the focus is very clear: Brahim Díaz and Ayoub El Kaabi have accounted for most of Morocco’s goals in the tournament (and it’s no coincidence, because both are very good at attacking the box and the edge of the box). In addition, the defensive block with long full-backs (Hakimi/Mazraoui) and physical centre-backs (Aguerd + company) is holding the whole structure together. Morocco’s “final XI” features Bounou; Mazraoui–Masina–Aguerd–Hakimi; El Khannouss–El Aynaoui–Saibari; Ezzalzouli–El Kaabi–Brahim Díaz. The negative note is the injury to Azzedine Ounahi, who according to reports is ruled out for the rest of the tournament.

My predictions for Senegal vs Morocco

BeniThe conservative one

Morocco to lift the trophy @ 1.60

Here I am looking for “win the tournament”, not necessarily in 90′. And in context, it makes a lot of sense to me: Morocco is conceding very little throughout the championship and, playing in Rabat, their game plan (order + patience + Bounou) is perfect for a close final. Without Koulibaly and Diarra, Senegal loses the hierarchy to sustain 120 minutes and also loses a piece to correct transitions. If you give me a choice of which side to back to withstand the pressure, I choose the host.

BetoThe bold one

Morocco to win to nil @ 2.75

This seems to me to be the “risky but coherent” choice in line with the main idea: a close final, Morocco minimising risks and Senegal with two absences that, for me, weigh heavily where it hurts most in this type of match (defensive command and internal energy). If Morocco takes the lead, it is normal for them to manage with a midfield block, forcing Senegal to cross a lot, and that is where Bounou + centre-backs usually prevail. Furthermore, Senegal has lived off low scores in the final rounds: if they fall behind, they are not a team that goes wild creating 8-10 clear chances.