Sunderland vs Liverpool (Premier League): odds and bets 11.02.2026

Premier League match at the Stadium of Light (11 February 2026) and, for me, one of those that can be explained by “moment” and context. Sunderland are in a comfortable position (9th) and compete very seriously at home, but they are coming off a tough blow: 3-0 at the Emirates. Liverpool, meanwhile, are in 6th place and have more individual quality, although they are also in turmoil after losing 1-2 to City and losing Szoboszlai to suspension.

The key is in the script: if Sunderland manages to make it a tight, short game (lots of duels, few concessions), they have a real chance of getting something out of it. If, on the other hand, Liverpool imposes its rhythm and continuity, it will likely win, even without shining.

Sunderland

I have been following Sunderland as a very “contextual” team: when they feel comfortable, they are competitive and even uncomfortable for anyone; when they are forced to run backwards and defend their area for a long time, they break down. Their recent form in the league makes this quite clear: a 3-0 defeat to Arsenal, a 3-0 win against Burnley, a 3-1 defeat to West Ham, a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace, a 0-1 win at Everton and a 3-0 defeat to Brentford. In other words, they alternate between peaks and troughs, but they don’t fall completely and, above all, they usually bounce back after a bad day.

In attack, they have a player who I think is very ‘bet-friendly’: Chemsdine Talbi appears to be one of the most prolific scorers in the run-up to the match, which suggests that Sunderland spread the danger and do not depend on a single classic striker.

As for injuries, this does influence my reading: there are several “buts” on the list, notably Granit Xhaka with an ankle injury (expected to return at the end of February), B. Traoré (knee) and W. Isidor (knee, estimated to return in mid-February), as well as Alderete with discomfort. If Isidor is not at his best, Sunderland loses its threat in space, which is precisely what punishes Liverpool the most, as they sometimes leave metres open when they push forward.

Liverpool

Liverpool arrive with a mixture of “danger” and “small cracks”. In recent results, the sequence is quite clear: they lost 1-2 to City, beat Newcastle 4-1, thrashed Qarabag 5-0, lost 3-2 to Bournemouth, won 0-3 against Marseille and drew 0-0 with Burnley. When they are on form, they run riot; when they get stuck, they concede strange scenarios.

There are two pieces of news for betting purposes: on the one hand, Szoboszlai is suspended and will miss the trip; on the other, Liverpool have several defensive and wing players out. The club’s injury list includes Conor Bradley out (knee), Frimpong with a muscle injury, Bajcetic out for the season with injury, Danns not training, and Gomez as a case to watch. For me, this affects the “how” more than the “what”: Liverpool can win, yes, but perhaps not with a perfect performance, because they are short on options for adjustments and rotation.

Furthermore, the team still has a lot of firepower: if they manage to get close to the area and string together attacks, they have more than enough resources to score even in a difficult match.

Referee: Christopher Kavanagh

The designated referee is Christopher Kavanagh, and here I do see a clear avenue for friction markets. This season in the Premier League, he has a high average number of cards (58 yellows in 15 games). In a match where Sunderland will need to cut off transitions and Liverpool tend to accelerate when they recover, this type of referee usually pushes for a clash with cautions, especially if the score is still alive in the final stretch.

My predictions for Sunderland vs Liverpool

BeniThe conservative one

Liverpool -0.25 (Asian Handicap). Odds 1.23.

Let me explain why this suits me: -0.25 is a way of ‘buying’ Liverpool’s superiority without committing entirely to a draw. If Liverpool wins, you win; if they draw, you lose half your bet. With Sunderland capable of competing at home but coming off a 3-0 defeat and with significant absences, and Liverpool still maintaining a lot of talent up front despite absences, this line seems to me to be a logical middle ground so as not to go blindly for 1X2.

BetoThe bold one

Liverpool wins and both teams score (2 & BTTS Yes). Odds 3.10

I still see Liverpool as favourites because of their quality and how they punish in transition, but I don’t trust them to keep a clean sheet: they are missing defensive players/rotation and Sunderland at home, with atmosphere and a need to compete, usually have at least one strong spell (especially at the start or after the break). This market fits a very typical scenario for me: Liverpool takes the lead, Sunderland pushes and finds the equaliser or a late goal, and in the end, the visitors’ finishing makes the difference.