Tottenham vs Liverpool (Premier League): odds and picks 20.12.2025

A big match in London, with two teams that are (for different reasons) walking the fine line between “it’s working for me” and “I’m missing a piece”. At this point, they are fairly even in the table, so context is important here: recent form, absences and, above all, who sets the pace.

I look at it from two clear angles. One: Tottenham are struggling in the Premier League (coming off a 3-0 defeat to Forest), although they have shown signs of strength in Europe. Two: Liverpool are coming off a 2-0 win over Brighton and, mind you, with the focus on the “aftermath” of Salah’s departure for the AFCON and the pieces Slot will have to move.

Tottenham

To me, Tottenham seem like a team of peaks at the moment: when they take an early lead, they can string together some very direct attacks; when they don’t, they struggle and start to concede transitions. Their latest results paint a pretty good picture: a tough 3-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest (14/12), but they were coming off a 2-0 win over Brentford (06/12) and a 3-0 European win over Slavia (09/12). In between, the 2-2 draw at Newcastle (2/12) and the 1-2 defeat to Fulham (29/11) speak volumes about their inconsistency in the league.

At home, Tottenham Hotspur Stadium tends to push them to attack more and take risks, and that affects the goal markets and “both teams to score”. The problem is that they have injuries that change the quality of the final pass: for example, Maddison is listed as a significant loss (cruciate ligament), and there are also doubts/absences for players such as Kulusevski and Bissouma. If that creative talent is not at 100%, Tottenham relies too much on winning duels and capitalising on quick plays, just the type of game that Liverpool is interested in punishing if they steal and run.

Furthermore, the noise surrounding the project does not help: there is talk of pressure for results (it is mentioned that they have only won 1 of their last 7 in the Premier League) and that is often noticeable in decision-making when the game gets stuck.

Liverpool

Liverpool arrive in better competitive form than their league position suggests, as their last few weeks have been a mix of setbacks and comebacks. On 13/12, they beat Brighton 2-0 at Anfield, and there is a key detail there: Salah reappears with an impact just before leaving for the AFCON, which changes the game plan and also the betting odds (who finishes, who assists and how they attack the space).

In recent results, they have had it all: 1-0 in the Champions League at Inter (9 December), a crazy 3-3 draw with Leeds (6 December), 1-1 with Sunderland (3 December) and a very serious 0-2 defeat at West Ham (30 November). For me, that describes a Liverpool side that doesn’t always control the game, but almost always competes and finds the goal. And in this fixture, the recent history is full of high scores: 5-1, 6-3, 4-2… (it’s no coincidence when two such attacking teams meet).

An important issue: rotations and “who’s missing”. It has been reported that Salah came off the bench against Brighton due to Joe Gomez’s injury and that his departure for the AFCON is imminent. If Liverpool lose Salah’s minutes or readjust the starting eleven, I value it more in “result with net” or goals markets than in a simple victory.

Referee: John Brooks

John Brooks is among those appointed for this matchday. In his four Premier League 2025/26 matches as a referee, he has issued 10 yellow cards, one red card and two penalties (average: 2.5 yellow cards per match). And there is an “emotional history” with both teams: he has appeared in Liverpool matches such as Newcastle–Liverpool (27/08/2023) and Liverpool–Chelsea (20/10/2024), and at Tottenham he has refereed several Premier League and cup matches. For card betting, I don’t classify him as a hyper-card issuer, but I do classify him as one who doesn’t hold back if the match breaks down (and this matchup often breaks down).

My predictions for Tottenham vs Liverpool

BeniThe conservative one

Both teams to score – Yes. Odds 1.57

This is the market that best fits the script I expect. Tottenham, even on their bad days, usually have periods of pressure and chances to score at home; and Liverpool, with or without total control, almost always find goals through volume and quality in transitions. In addition, recent H2H results invite us to think about goals from both sides: they come from high-scoring, open games. If Tottenham takes the lead, Liverpool forces you to hold on to the result; if Liverpool scores first, Tottenham scrambles to equalise. In both scenarios, “BTTS” seems to me to be the most logical coverage.

BetoThe bold one

Tottenham – Draw No Bet (DNB). Odds 2.50

Here I am looking for value in the context of home advantage and Liverpool’s volatility due to minute management/absences (AFCON on the horizon) and because this fixture is rarely “by the book”. I like DNB because I’m not committed to a draw (which is very possible in a game of alternatives), but I do side with Tottenham if they manage a high-paced, back-and-forth game with duels in the opponent’s half. It’s an aggressive bet, yes, but with a safety net: I need Tottenham to win, and if it ends in a draw, I get my money back. If I see Tottenham playing intensely from the start, it’s just the kind of pick I like to make.