Valencia vs Real Betis (La Liga): odds and picks 09.11.2025

Matchday 12 clash at Mestalla, Sunday 9 November. I come into this match with a clear reading of the trends: Valencia are struggling at the bottom of the table and on a winless streak, while Betis are flying high after their 3-0 win over Mallorca and with European ambitions. The league table and current form tip the balance in favour of the Green and Whites.

Key factors for me: recent form, significant absences and game plan. Valencia have had a string of poor results (0-4 at the Bernabéu last matchday) and are accumulating absences, while Betis have found their form with Antony and a solid defence without the ball. In addition, the recent H2H is balanced, but the current momentum weighs heavily.

Valencia

I see a Valencia side lacking in confidence: six games without a win and a heavy 0-4 defeat to Real Madrid. They are 18th in the table with 9 points, and their offensive production depends heavily on transitions and set pieces; when they have to build from the back, they struggle.

A recent analysis of metrics placed them among the worst in recoveries and with intermittent pressure; when they can run in open space, they improve, but if the opponent denies them space, they struggle to create. That, against a Betis side that manages possession well, could be decisive.

On the injury front, there are many factors to consider: Diakhaby (hamstring), Ramazani (quadriceps) and Ugrinic (knee) are still out; in addition, Foulquier has been doubtful in recent weeks.

All this limits rotations and defensive planning, especially in aerial and wing duels. At Mestalla, the team tends to push forward at times, but if they concede first, they find it very difficult to get back into the game.

Given this scenario, I imagine Corberán will reinforce the double pivot and play a more supportive winger to close down the flanks against Antony/Abde, looking for opportunities in transition and from set pieces.

Real Betis

The 3-0 win over Mallorca confirmed Betis’ upward trajectory: Antony is on fire (two goals and an assist), Abde is making a difference in space and the team is regaining height without losing its shape.

In the table, they are 5th with 19 points and on a run that combines solidity and punch; away from home they have not always been reliable, but the current momentum is good and the opposition is wounded.

Keep an eye on the injuries: Isco is still out (fibula), Pau López has a muscle problem and Junior Firpo is in the infirmary; even so, the starting eleven still has dynamite on the wings and good circulation in the middle.

In recent H2H matches, the results have been mixed (including a 4-2 win for Valencia in 2024), but today form weighs more heavily than history. On my board: Pellegrini (or his coaching staff) will look for long possessions to disrupt Valencia’s midfield pressure, load the strong side with Antony and finish quickly.

If Betis strikes first, the match will tend to be controlled by the visitors and moderate under scenarios due to management.

My predictions for Valencia vs Real Betis

BeniThe conservative one

Betis double chance (X2). Odds 1.55

I’m going with the protection of a draw due to the dynamics: Betis are more prepared, Valencia concede more than their xG allows and suffer without space. With the context of local absences and Betis’ momentum, X2 captures most likely scenarios without forcing 2.00+.

BetoThe bold one

Betis to win + Under 3.5 goals. Odds 3.20

I see value because Betis is finishing better and Valencia, if they fall behind, does not have too many resources to break down settled blocks. With Antony deciding on the outside and a more stable Betis defence, scenarios such as 0-1/0-2/1-2 fit.

I prefer to tie the U3.5 to raise the odds without demanding a goal fest. Alternative for more aggressive profiles: Betis wins outright (2.40–2.60) or Draw No Bet Betis (~1.70–1.85). Adjust stake: 1.25–1.5u on the conservative and 0.75–1u on the combined.